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Trade Deadline Primer: Buffalo Sabres

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Although we’re not even two months into the season, the trade deadline is just over a month away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We continue our look around the league with the Buffalo Sabres.

No team has received more media scrutiny this season than the Buffalo Sabres. The team is floundering yet again despite adding the top free agent forward in Taylor Hall and acquiring veteran center Eric Staal. Not only have Hall and Staal disappointed, but very few members of the team have exceeded or even met expectations this season. With failing veterans, stalled youngsters, and a number of expiring contracts, the Sabres are stuck and appear primed for a fire sale and resumed focus on rebuilding.

According to a number of sources, almost anyone on the Sabres could be made available. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that Buffalo is “wide open” for business and The Athletic included four Sabres on their Trade Deadline Big Board. It all sounds very exciting to the other 30 teams and their fans, doesn’t it? Well, don’t get your hopes too high for major moves by Buffalo. Given the constraints of an NHL trade market impacted by a flat salary cap as well as real-life financial struggles, not to mention the restrictions on Canadian teams due to COVID-19 border policies, making trades this year is no easy feat. Trading a player like Jack Eichel in-season seems nearly impossible, even if the Sabres wanted to move him which is unlikely. Add in that rookie GM Kevyn Adams is new to the job and trying to build connections in a quiet market while trying to avoid being taken advantage of, and the Sabres suddenly look like a team that might end up playing it safe. Does Adams really want to move the likes of Sam Reinhart and Victor Olofsson, both of whom are among the productive minority in Buffalo, when the odds of winning such a move seem slim? Does he want to potentially overreact to the frustrations of Jeff Skinner and give away major assets to move his contract? Adams has a number of contracts expiring after this year and next that he can move without much risk of it coming back to bite him. Expect that “wide open” means he’s willing to move any amount of those players, but won’t be too keen to touch anyone else who the team may still be able to build around.

Record

6-14-3, .326, 8th in East Division

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$410,962 in full-season cap space, 0/3 retention slots used, 44/50 contracts used per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: BUF 1st, BUF 2nd, BUF 4th, BUF 6th, BUF 7th
2022: BUF 1st, BUF 2nd, BUF 3rd, BUF 4th, BUF 6th, BUF 7th

Trade Chips

Hall of course stands out as the top trade chip for the Sabres if you assume that the likes of Eichel, Reinhart, Olofsson, and Rasmus Dahlin are not going anywhere (a safe assumption despite the whispers). The former Hart Trophy winner may not be enjoying a strong season, but he is a known commodity who can play a top-six role for any team in the league. Hall has expressed some interest in re-signing with Buffalo, but without any evidence that he is a fit and with a ways to go in their rebuild, retaining the 29-year-old Hall on a heavy price tag makes little sense. The trouble with trading him though is a potential lack of suitors who can actually afford his $8MM cap hit. A lack of demand could impact what Buffalo is able to receive in a deal, but they should still end up with a nice package. Anything is better than letting him walk for free this summer.

Staal too could see his time in Buffalo come to a quick end. The veteran center is well-respected across the league and brings solid two-way play and postseason experience. While he has lost a step, that won’t stop contenders from seeing him as a worthwhile depth addition.

On defense, Brandon Montour is absolutely on the block. The puck-moving defenseman is headed for free agency and the Sabres have made it known that they are open to renting him out. Montour has not produced as they had hoped and is no longer in their long-term plans, so Buffalo has no reason not to trade the 26-year-old defenseman. Given his offensive upside, his ability to play either side of the blue line, and his palatable $3.85MM cap hit, Montour should be easy to move. Sadly, Jake McCabe also would have been easy to move and would have returned a prime package as arguably the best left-handed defenseman on a trade deadline seller. However, his season is over due to injury and the Sabres will lose out on his trade value.

Even with Montour and McCabe out of the way this off-season, the Sabres still face a potential expansion conundrum on defense. Should Buffalo choose to protect seven forwards and three defensemen, Dahlin is a lock but it leaves only two spots to split between top-four blue liners Rasmus Ristolainen and Colin Miller and young Henri Jokiharju. The Sabres could choose to move one of the three rather than lose them for nothing to the Seattle Kraken. Ristolainen had long been a fixture on the rumor mill, but those talks have cooled significantly since last season. Do the Sabres finally move the talented defenseman, especially as his stock has risen this season? Ristolainen only has one season remaining on his contract and could be tempted to pursue a more talented team in free agency after playing exclusively for Buffalo thus far in his pro career. Miller also has just one year remaining on his deal and comes with a lesser price tag than Ristolainen, albeit with a less complete game as well. Jokijarju, 21, is not necessarily safe either; the young rearguard has not met expectations thus far in his time with the Sabres but he does have impressive upside.

In net, Buffalo will see both members of their NHL tandem hit the open market this summer barring an extension. The Sabres may be well-served to extend 27-year-old Linus Ullmark, but if the feeling isn’t mutual then they should move the net minder while he can still return value. If Ullmark is healthy, he could be a major trade chip for the Sabres. Veteran Carter Hutton is less likely to move given his struggles and his $2.75MM cap hit, but Buffalo will certainly make him available.

Others to Watch For: F Curtis Lazar ($800K, one year remaining), F Tobias Rieder ($700K, UFA), F Riley Sheahan ($700K, UFA), D Matt Irwin ($700K, UFA)

Team Needs

1) Draft Picks – Sabres fans rightfully want their team to be better and they want them to be better sooner rather than later. However, that isn’t easy to do. A rookie GM with few impact players and little cap space doesn’t have the means to immediately upgrade his roster. This team is headed toward a long, arduous rebuild. What makes accepting that reality even more difficult is that the Sabres do not even have their full complement of draft picks to build upon. Missing a third and a fifth this year and a fifth next year, Buffalo is in the unfortunate position of needing to add talent to their pipeline and don’t even have the complete means to do so. The goal for Adams and company at the deadline should be not only to recoup their missing picks but to add other high-value picks as well.

2) Prospects – If the Sabres are unable to add valuable future prospects in the form of high draft picks, they need to target current top prospects instead. The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler recently ranked Buffalo’s pipeline as 15th-best in the NHL, an unacceptable position for a team that is supposed to be rebuilding. The Sabres need to move from middle-of-the-pack toward the top of the NHL’s prospect rankings if they want to speed up their rebuild. A projected top-four defenseman and center depth should be the specific targets of their aim to add youth.

Ducks Notes: Eakins, Getzlaf, Heinen, Tracey

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The Anaheim Ducks are off to another poor start this season, currently sitting in last place in the West Division with the fourth-worst record in the NHL. They aren’t trending in the right direction either; at 1-6-3, no team in the league has been as bad as the Ducks over their past ten games. Although head coach Dallas Eakins is only in his second season with Anaheim, there is still growing scrutiny of his failures so far and speculation as to his job security. After all, Eakins was brought in to lead the rebuild in Anaheim due to his past success with young players, yet many of the young Ducks continue to fall short of expectations. Eakins’ conservative style has also stymied the team’s offensive potential, as they sit second-to-last in the NHL in scoring with just 2.16 goals per game this season.

However, in the eyes of his general manager there is no need for Eakins to worry about his job just yet. Speaking with the media, Ducks GM Bob Murray gave a firm vote of confidence to his head coach. “I’ve got total confidence in Dallas,” Murray said. “I think he’s doing a pretty good job right now with everything that’s going on. I have no issues whatsoever. I have no problem with Dallas.” Despite this emphatic note of support, Murray did state later in the press conference that he expected the team to better this season. So if the blame does not lie with Eakins, could it fall on Murray? Many believe that the veteran GM could also be in danger of losing his job. If that is the case, Eakins’ own job security may only be as good as that of the man who hired him. Something has to change in Anaheim and ownership may soon step in and make changes.

  • As for one major change that Ducks fans are hoping to avoid, Murray shared some news that they will find comforting. With rumors floating around that long-time captain Ryan Getzlaf could be traded, Murray made no qualms about his thoughts on that matter. “I’m tired of hearing this… how his name is out there,” Murray said, “the only way Ryan Getzlaf would go anywhere is if he came to me and said, ’Bob, can you try and trade me to a contender?’ As an impending free agent who would be a desirable rental even at his advanced age, there is certainly value in moving Getzlaf. However, the career Duck has earned the right to decide his own future. According to Murray, the two sides will wait to see how Getzlaf feels both physically and mentally about continuing his career and doing so in Anaheim, but he calls the relationship “wonderful” and is open to an extension if Getzlaf is.
  • One player who seems likely to be traded or, if not, unlikely to return next season is Danton Heinen. Still only in his first season with the Ducks, Heinen’s name did not emerge as a trade candidate until a string of healthy scratches and then a very public negotiation between the Ducks and Vancouver Canucks that included he and Jake Virtanen. In over a week since that hypothetical deal went viral, Heinen has been scratched in three of the Ducks five games. In the two games he has played, Heinen has been held without a point or even a shot on goal, is a -2, and has seen a notable drop-off in ice time. Heinen simply does not seem to be a fit in Anaheim and as an impending free agent will see his time with the team come to an end soon, one way or another. If there is interest in acquiring the winger, who recorded 47 points as a rookie with the Boston Bruins just three years ago, then he will surely be traded. If not, he will walk this summer and have to look for a fresh start elsewhere.
  • A young player who the Ducks will not rush into their rebuild this year is Brayden Tracey. The 2019 first-rounder is under contract and has already played a dozen AHL games this season, but his time in the pros won’t go any further in 2020-21. The San Diego Gulls have announced that Tracey has been reassigned to his junior club, the WHL’s Victoria Royals, to play out the rest of the season. With the Ducks having been criticized for bringing too many of their current top prospects to the NHL before they were ready, they will let Tracey continue to develop against his own peers instead. The 19-year-old forward has shown great skill at the junior level, but was held scoreless in the minors and will be grateful to re-discover his scoring touch back in the WHL.

COVID Protocol Related Absences: 03/08/21

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Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 Protocol. Updated with late submissions from the Oilers, Panthers, Canadiens, and Sharks, the list is currently at just two:

San Jose – Tomas Hertl, Marcus Sorensen

As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:

(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol

Players removed today: Dennis Gilbert, Colorado Avalanche; Colton Sceviour, Pittsburgh Penguins

Two more removals leave the list bare and encouraging, especially as the league allows more and more fans into buildings all across the U.S. After some early season outbreaks, it appears as though the tightened protocols are working. All that remains between the NHL and a COVID clean slate is a pair of Sharks.

*denotes new addition

Poll: Do You Like The Draft Lottery?

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The NHL is making changes to the draft lottery again. Reports emerged today that several tweaks to the process are being put forward to the league’s board of governors for a vote, with some coming into effect for 2021 and some for 2022. But is it changes the league needs, or to do away with the lottery entirely?

Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic wrote a piece on the potential changes last month and noted how frequently over the last few seasons teams have moved up a considerable number of picks. He notes that the “final straw” for some was Detroit failing to receive even a top-three pick after finishing dead last in the NHL with a historically-bad record. 17-49-5 was good for the fourth selection, a brutal punishment for a team that is really just starting a true rebuild. The idea that the Red Wings “aren’t tanking” may rub people the wrong way, since it’s obvious their management wasn’t trying to make the playoffs last season, but many believe there’s no way the team should have been pushed that far down.

While the proposed changes would help somewhat—holding the lottery for only two picks instead of three means the Red Wings would have been guaranteed a top-three selection—the question still remains: should the league do away with the lottery entirely?

Should the worst team in the league be rewarded with the top pick every year? Should there be simple restrictions like no first-overall two years in a row? What other ideas are there for how to tweak the lottery to make it better? Cast a vote below but then make sure to share your thoughts in the comments.

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NHL Proposing Changes To Draft Lottery

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2:45pm: Those issues were quickly resolved. Friedman reports that most of the changes will not take place until the 2022 draft and previous lottery victories will not be included. The 2021 lottery will indeed go down to two picks instead of three, should the changes be approved.

2:05pm: The NHL appears to be changing the draft lottery once again. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet reports that in a memo circulated to clubs today, the league has proposed several changes. Teams would now be limited to no more than two lottery wins in a five-year period, would only be allowed to jump ten spots with a win, and only two picks (instead of three) will be determined with a lottery win. The changes are still subject to approval from the league’s board of governors.

Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet adds that news of these changes coming out is another sign that the draft will not be pushed back, though the official announcement has not been made on that. There was ample support from teams for the event to be moved so that there is more time to scout the 2021 draft class, but it would be very complicated to do so and needed to be bargained with the NHLPA.

The lottery changes—which certainly will make things more complicated if instituted—seem designed to prevent teams that barely miss the playoffs from winning the top spot, while also punishing a team that tears it all down to stay at the bottom of the league for several years. That five-year period will be a very important thing to remember for clubs in a rebuild and could block them from even having a chance at some of the best incoming players.

Discussion over the lottery goes back a while, but in October it was reported that the Detroit Red Wings were leading the charge on changes. Detroit themselves are in a rebuild phase and dead last in the league in 2019-20, but failed to receive a top-three pick when the New York Rangers, Los Angeles Kings and Ottawa Senators won the lottery spots. That would mean if these rules are immediately put into action (and retroactively considered), the Red Wings would still be eligible for picks. The New Jersey Devils, however, who are near the bottom of the standings once again, would not be eligible to win a lottery pick if their previous wins were taken into account. The Devils won the first overall pick in both 2017 (Nico Hischier) and 2019 (Jack Hughes), so they may be ineligible this time around.

There are no specifics released yet on whether the new rules would use previous outcomes or if they would start new in 2021, but it’s clear that changes of some sort will come in the future.

Snapshots: Three Stars, Vegas, Simmonds, Pettersson

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The NHL has released the Three Stars for last week, with Mark Stone leading the way after a few incredible performances. The Vegas Golden Knights captain scored ten points in four games including a five-assist outing against the Minnesota Wild. The two-way forward is off to the best start of his career with 27 points in his first 21 games and has the Golden Knights in first place with a 16-4-1 record.

Thatcher Demko of the Vancouver Canucks and Martin Necas of the Carolina Hurricanes take home the second and third stars after outstanding weeks of their own. Demko has really started to lay claim to the Vancouver crease with four strong performances in a row, including a .969 save percentage in his three appearances last week. The Canucks won all three games, not something the team has been able to say often this year. Necas meanwhile has broken out this season for the Hurricanes, recording 18 points in 21 games and looking like a potential top-line player for the team in the coming years. The 22-year-old has been strong at both ends of the rink and is working on a four-game point streak (2 G, 5 A).

  • Though Stone won the top honors, he may not play tonight for the Golden Knights. Justin Emerson of the Las Vegas Sun reports that Stone, Alex Pietrangelo, and Brayden McNabb are all game-time decisions for the matchup against the Wild tonight. The Golden Knights have four games between now and Saturday as they squeeze in matchups, including an important back-to-back against the St. Louis Blues.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs presented a nice surprise this morning when Wayne Simmonds took the ice for the first time before practice. The 32-year-old broke his wrist on February 6 and was given a six-week recovery timeline. Toronto’s bottom-six has been playing well of late but there is no doubt they’d love to have Simmonds back in the fold, given how well he had been playing in the early going. The veteran forward had five goals in his first 12 games.
  • The Vancouver Canucks will be without Elias Pettersson again tonight as they look for their third consecutive win. After beating the Maple Leafs twice, Vancouver will try to slow down the Montreal Canadiens without their top forward. Pettersson was just starting to find his rhythm when he suffered this latest injury and has 21 points in 26 games this season.

Taxi Squad Shuffle: 03/08/21

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There has been plenty of roster movement between NHL teams and the taxi squad on a daily basis this season. Although some major names may be highlighted in separate articles, this is where you’ll find the majority of that shuffle news each day:

West Division

  • The Minnesota Wild have moved Matt Bartkowski down to the AHL, after spending the last few weeks on the taxi squad without playing. Bartkowski has actually played just a single game at any level this season.
  • The AHL’s Ontario Reign have lost a trio of their top players in one fell swoop. Top prospect forwards Akil Thomas and Samuel Fagemo have been promoted to the taxi squad while goaltender Troy Grosenick has been recalled directly to the Los Angeles Kings. Another top prospect, Rasmus Kupari, has also joined the Kings from the taxi squad. L.A. has reassigned defenseman Daniel Brickley from the taxi squad to Ontario.

Central Division

East Division

North Division

This page will be updated throughout the day

Justin Dowling, Colton Sceviour Placed On Waivers

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Two more players are available to the league today, as Chris Johnston of Sportsnet reports that Justin Dowling (DAL) and Colton Sceviour (PIT) have been placed on waivers.

Dowling, 30, only returned from a conditioning stint in the AHL a week ago and has barely seen any ice time in the two games since. Averaging nearly 13 minutes in his first nine appearances, he received fewer than nine in losses to Tampa Bay and Columbus last week. He wasn’t in the lineup at all for the last two, so his arrival on waivers shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.

The undrafted forward has only 60 regular season NHL games under his belt, instead spending most of his professional career at the minor league level. In 2018-19 he scored 53 points in 62 games with the Texas Stars, which ended up landing him a good stretch of play at the highest level. Still, his upside is extremely limited, meaning it is unlikely that someone claims him at this point in the year.

Sceviour meanwhile will likely clear for a different reason entirely. The 31-year-old forward has logged nearly 500 games in the NHL but provides very little offense and carries a cap hit of $1.2MM. In 16 games this season, his first with Pittsburgh after coming over in the Mike Matheson–Patric Hornqvist deal, Sceviour has scored just two goals and failed to record a single assist. For a team pushed right up against the cap like the Penguins, his salary is prohibitive, meaning he could easily find himself buried on the taxi squad if he clears.

It’s that salary that could protect him from claim too, given how few teams want to add money at this point. Sceviour is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year, so perhaps a rebuilding team could claim him in order to try and flip later, but given how few skaters have been claimed this season it still seems unlikely. The fact that he was on the COVID Protocol Related Absences list yesterday only complicates the matter, though it is unclear how long he will be unavailable.

NWHL Suspends Remainder Of Season

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March 8: There’s a reason why the league never used the word canceled. The NWHL will complete its 2021 season later this month at Warrior Ice Arena in Brighton, Massachusetts. On March 26-27, four teams will compete for the Isobel Cup championship, with the games broadcast on NBCSN. No fans will be in attendance. The Toronto Six take on the Boston Pride in the first semi-final, while the Minnesota Whitecaps will take on the Connecticut Whale in the second.

Feb 3: The NWHL had already seen two teams remove themselves from competition at their Lake Placid bubble and now, thanks to more positive COVID-19 test results, the entire league has decided to suspend the remainder of the 2021 season. There had been several outbreaks that left really no choice but to shut things down, an unfortunate result just before the playoffs were going to be aired on NBC Sports in the coming days.

The Toronto Six, Buffalo Beauts, Boston Pride, and Minnesota Whitecaps were scheduled to play in the semi-final round on Thursday, while the winners would play the Isobel Cup final on Friday.

As Marisa Ingemi of NBC writes, there had been additional players brought into the “bubble” over the last few days, sparking some controversy over how secure the health protocols actually were. Two teams, the Connecticut Whale and Metropolitan Riveters, who shared a hotel (along with the Whitecaps), had already pulled themselves from the competition.

Greg Wyshynski of ESPN tweets that internally, the NWHL hopes that the streaming numbers and “unprecedented mainstream interest” can still result in some positives being drawn from the tournament, but notes it is now a “critical time” as the league changes staff.

The PWHPA on the other hand, another professional women’s hockey organization that has at times been rivals with the NWHL, announced some encouraging news today instead. The New York Rangers and Madison Square Garden will host the Dream Gap Tour on February 28, claiming the first time that professional women’s hockey will be played in the arena.

Five Key Stories: 03/01/21 – 03/07/21

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The opening week of March featured quite a few notable headlines across the NHL which are highlighted in our key stories.

Stepan’s Season Over: Senators center Derek Stepan had been in trade speculation for the past several weeks.  It was the likely outcome for a team that was expected to flip him to a contender and they were hoping to get him back to the United States where he could be with his family.  He’ll be able to rejoin them now but not by a trade as it was confirmed that he will miss the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury that required surgery.  Stepan’s season ends with just one goal and five assists in 20 games, hardly the level of production he was hoping to have in his final year before becoming an unrestricted free agent.  All of a sudden, Stepan goes from potentially being one of the better centers available to one that will simply be looking to have a bounce-back year.

Tarasenko Returns: Forget about waiting to see what the Blues are able to do at the trade deadline.  No, their best acquisition came on Saturday when Vladimir Tarasenko, their top winger, was activated off LTIR and made his season debut that night.  The 29-year-old has been one of the more dangerous scoring threats in the league when he is healthy and will give a St. Louis attack that’s already tied for third in the league in goals scored another level.  With several other players on LTIR, no corresponding cap-clearing move was required.

Seabrook Hangs Them Up: Heading into the season, Blackhawks defenseman Brent Seabrook was expected to return but was ruled as unavailable with no timeline for a return.  As it turns out, there won’t be a return after all.  Instead, the 35-year-old announced that his playing days have come to an end due to a lingering hip issue.  Seabrook was a key cog on Chicago’s back end for parts of 15 seasons, playing in over 1,100 career regular season games plus another 123 in the playoffs where he helped lead the team to three Stanley Cup titles.  He remains under contract through 2023-24 and hasn’t officially retired which means he will be on LTIR for the rest of this season plus the next three although Chicago will be able to spend over the cap to replace him.

Calgary Changes Coaches: With the Flames scuffling and sitting on the outside looking in at a playoff spot, Geoff Ward’s tenure as head coach appeared to be tenuous and ultimately came to an end as he was relieved of his duties.  While that may not have been too much of a shock, what was quite surprising was his replacement as Darryl Sutter was brought back for a second stint with Calgary, signing a three-year contract.  The 62-year-old was behind the bench with the Flames from 2002 through 2006 during which the team made it to the Stanley Cup Final.  Notably, he’s a direct contrast from Ward’s coaching style as it appears that GM Brad Treliving believes a stricter bench boss will bring out the best from his underachievers.  Sutter had to go through quarantine before joining the team so his debut won’t come until they start a two-game set against Montreal on Thursday.

Wilson Suspended: Capitals winger Tom Wilson drew the ire of the Department of Player Safety again from a boarding incident on Friday night against Boston on a hit on Brandon Carlo.  While boarding penalties themselves typically don’t carry hefty suspensions, Wilson’s track record suggested a sizable one would be coming.  In the end, the league handed him a seven-game ban, one he has opted not to appeal.  It’s the fifth suspension of his career and will cost him over $311K in salary, an amount that would have been substantially higher had it not been more than two years since his previous suspension.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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