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Avalanche Notes: Rantanen, Annunen, Zadorov

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Things are all quiet between the Colorado Avalanche and Mikko Rantanen according to Adrian Dater of Colorado Hockey Now, who tweets that there has been “little to no talk” over the last week. There was a prevailing thought in the hockey world that once Mitch Marner signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs there would be some kind of movement with the other restricted free agents, but that’s not necessarily the case in Colorado. Rantanen compares pretty well to Marner after scoring 171 points over the last two seasons, but it is hard to imagine Avalanche GM Joe Sakic was happy when he saw the six-year, $65MM deal come across the wire from Toronto.

Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado’s best player, is making averaging just $6.3MM over the final four years of his contract, making it tough to see the Avalanche hand out nearly twice that amount to Rantanen even with his strong performances to date. The 22-year old Finn will almost certainly become the team’s highest-paid player however if he signs any long-term deal, just how high the Avalanche are willing to go is unclear. Colorado has plenty of cap space for this season, but has to worry about potential extensions for Gabriel Landeskog, Philipp Grubauer and Cale Makar in two years.

  • They won’t have to worry about Justus Annunen for a while however, as the goaltending prospect has signed a two-year extension in Finland that keeps him under contract through 2021-22. While that doesn’t necessarily guarantee Annunen won’t be coming to North America during that time—the NHL does have a transfer agreement with Liiga—it certainly makes remaining overseas a strong possibility. The 19-year old was selected in the third round in 2018 and would see his draft rights expire on June 1, 2022. Annunen was brilliant in his first game for Karpat this season, stopping 23 of 25 shots for a win against HPK.
  • Nikita Zadorov escaped major injury when he left the ice early yesterday and head coach Jared Bednar told reporters including Ryan S. Clark of The Athletic that it is just a lower-body “tweak.” Zadorov is considered day-to-day. It is a big season for Zadorov as he approaches restricted free agency next summer, needing to prove that he can be a top-four option for this team over the long haul.

RFA Profile: Mikko Rantanen

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Avalanche winger Mikko Rantanen is now the top remaining restricted free agent following the signings of quite a few players around the league over the past few days.  While it’s possible that those moves could get the ball rolling on a new deal for him, the likelier scenario at this point is that it doesn’t.  Here is a look at Rantanen’s situation.

The 22-year-old is coming off his second straight season with over 80 points, a feat that not many players have reached in recent years.  He also played quite well in the postseason where he led the team in scoring with 14 points in a dozen games.  As far as offensive production goes, there aren’t many real comparable players out there.

One element that Colorado may try to use against him in talks is how much offensive zone starts he had last season.  Their top line all saw heavy usage in the offensive end but none more than Rantanen.  His career OZ% rate is higher than quite a few of the players that could be considered as comparables.  There was a time where teammate Nathan MacKinnon’s $6.3MM AAV was set as the ideal ceiling for the whole team but let’s face it, that’s not going to happen.  He’s a player with two high-end seasons under his belt and is still viewed as having some upside.  He’s going to get a substantial contract that is well past MacKinnon’s.

Statistics

2018-19: 74 GP, 31-56-87, +13, 54 PIMS, 193 shots, 20:51 ATOI
Career: 230 GP, 80-129-209, -19, 112 PIMS, 513 shots, 18:53 ATOI

Comparables

Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) – His placement here is basically to establish the floor for this contract.  Like Rantanen, they’re both viewed as the second-best offensive threat on their respective teams and while Draisaitl played the premium position (he was mostly a center at the time), Rantanen outscored him by a fair margin in each of their two full NHL seasons.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 29-48-77, +7, 20 PIMS, 172 shots, 18:53 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 191 GP, 50-87-137, -12, 44 PIMS, 354 shots, 17:22 ATOI

Contract: Eight years, $68MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 11.33%
Current Equivalent: Eight years, $73.87MM ($9.23MM AAV)

Jack Eichel (Buffalo) – This is a contract that Rantanen’s camp will undoubtedly point to as a benchmark deal.  Eichel hadn’t reached the 70-point mark in any of his ELC years, something that Rantanen easily surpassed twice.  Yes, Eichel plays the tougher position and has the better draft pedigree but there is a good case to be made that Rantanen deserves more than this contract.

Platform Year Stats: 67 GP, 25-39-64, -25, 32 PIMS, 246 shots, 20:09 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 209 GP, 73-104-177, -54, 76 PIMS, 743 shots, 19:41 ATOI

Contract: Eight years, $80MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 13.33%
Current Equivalent: Eight years, $86.91MM ($10.86MM AAV)

Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay) – I’m focusing on his post-ELC deal, not his current one.  (Since Rantanen is coming off his entry-level pact, all of the comparable contracts are also post-ELC ones.)  He went with a shorter deal to get to UFA eligibility quicker.  Stamkos, a number one overall pick, also outscored Rantanen in each season (though Rantanen’s point per game pace was a little higher than Stamkos’ platform season).  While the RFA market has improved since 2011, this deal (in today’s dollars) should be considered the ceiling of a medium-term contract.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 45-46-91, +3, 74 PIMS, 272 shots, 20:12 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 243 GP, 119-113-232, -12, 151 PIMS, 750 shots, 18:36 ATOI

Contract: Five years, $37.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 11.66%
Current Equivalent: Five years, $47.51MM ($9.502MM AAV)

Mitch Marner (Toronto) – The obvious one is saved for last.  Many expected Marner’s deal to basically be a comparable as soon as it was signed and there’s little reason to think it won’t be.  Marner is a bit more of a playmaker than Rantanen and they play different styles but they’re both very productive wingers so the money is going to be pretty close one way or the other.

Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 26-68-94, +22, 22 PIMS, 233 shots, 19:49 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 241 GP, 67-157-224, +21, 81 PIMS, 603 shots, 17:41 ATOI

Contract: Six years, $65.358MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 13.37%

Projected Contract

GM Joe Sakic has made it known that his preference would be to get a long-term deal done.  However, the appetite probably won’t be there at the rate it would take to get a max-term contract in place.  The Avalanche have the salary cap space to make such a move but with some of their other players that will be needing new deals a couple years from now, a slightly lesser term will give them a bit more flexibility down the road.

With that in mind, a two or three-year bridge deal likely isn’t on the table as well.  Those can be justifiable when a team is in a cap crunch but that isn’t the case here.  Four years walks him to unrestricted free agency so that’s off the table as well.

As a result, five or six years could very well be the happy medium.  If it’s five years, it should check in slightly below the $9.502MM current year equivalent for Stamkos’ deal.  On a six-year pact and a second UFA year included, the AAV should jump a little past the $10MM mark.  There’s a valid argument to have him in Marner’s territory but Colorado’s cap situation compared to Toronto’s gives the Avalanche a bit more leverage than what the Maple Leafs had as they couldn’t let Marner’s case drag out into the season and make the first year AAV higher than they could afford even with LTIR.  That should be enough to keep Rantanen’s price tag a little lower in the end.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Western Notes: Leschyshyn, Nurse, Sekera

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The Colorado Avalanche and Joe Sakic have brought in another former NHL player into the fold to work in the organization. Colorado Hockey Now’s Adrian Dater reports that the Avalanche have hired Curtis Leschyshyn as a pro scout.

Leschyshyn, 49, started his career with the organization, playing for the Quebec Nordiques for the first seven years and then moving with the team to Colorado when they became the Avalanche. He played one full season in Colorado before being traded in his second year in the city. The former blueliner, played more than 1,000 games (1,033) and scored 47 goals and 212 points.

  • Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal reports that Edmonton Oilers general manager Ken Holland isn’t ready to talk about an extension with Oilers’ defenseman Darnell Nurse yet. The GM said he wants to get more familiar with his team and what he has before committing to a player. Nurse has one year remaining on his two-year, $6.4MM deal he signed last year. The 24-year-old stepped up last season and had a breakout deal, posting career highs in goals (10) and points (41). The blueliner will be a restricted free agent again in 2020-21. Matheson writes that the contract that Josh Morrissey signed with Winnipeg at eight years and $50MM could be a template for Nurse.
  • The Dallas Stars made quite a few headlines this summer when they went out and signed Joe Pavelski and Corey Perry this summer to free-agent contracts. However, one signing that flew somewhat under the radar was the team signing defenseman Andrej Sekera. The 33-year-old blueliner has dealt with injuries the past couple of years while in Edmonton, but was their top shutdown defender before being beset by injuries. Due to his extravagant contract, the Oilers opted to buy him out, making him a free agent. NHL.com’s Mike Heika writes that Sekera is drawing rave reviews, however, in training camp so far and it looks like the veteran will be paired with 20-year-old Miro Heiskanen on Dallas’ second pairing on defense. “I actually think he’s going to be the one guy who is going to be a surprise,” said Stars general manager Jim Nill. “You talk about Perry and Pavelski, I think people are going to be surprised with what he brings to us.”

Central Notes: Spurgeon, Koivu, Thomas, Avalanche, Copp

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The Minnesota Wild announced earlier today they signed Jared Spurgeon to a seven-year, $53MM extension that will kick in during the 2020-21 season. The Athletic’s Michael Russo reports that Spurgeon’s deal has a no movement clause this year as well as the first four years of the first contract. After that, Spurgeon has a 10-team modified no-trade clause for the final three years, which will kick in during the 2024-25 season.

  • Sticking with the Wild, Minnesota got some good news about injured forward Mikko Koivu, who had surgery to repair a torn ACL back in February. The 36-year-old, who was expected to be eased back into practices and scrimmages in training camp, told coach Bruce Boudreau that he’s ready and is expected to participate in scrimmages on Monday, according to StarTribune’s Sarah McLellan. Koivu was cleared for practice on Thursday, but now looks like he’s ready for full play. He scored eight goals and 29 points in 47 games last season before going down with the knee injury.
  • NHL.com’s Lou Korac reports that the St. Louis Blues have been without forward Robert Thomas for a second straight day as he recovers from offseason surgery to repair a tendon in his left wrist. He and Jordan Kyrou, out with a knee injury, are expected to be brought back slowly from their injuries. “We’ve got them in that third group right now,” Blues head coach Craig Berube said. “We’ve got to be a little cautious with them right now.”
  • BSN Denver’s A.J. Haefele writes that Colorado Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar had quite a few positive to point out after Day 2 of training camp. Bednar pointed out quite a bit of improvement in the play of winger Andre Burakovsky and the standout play of A.J. Greer and the impressive leaderships skills of Pierre-Edouard Bellemare. He also said that he believes that the next step for defenseman Samuel Girard is his offensive game. The 21-year-old scored four goals and 27 points last season. While both were career highs, Bednar would like to see those numbers rise this season.
  • The Athletic’s Ken Wiebe reports that the Winnipeg Jets are without a few player at the moment. The team has been without forward Andrew Copp due to a minor groin injury, while Kristian Vesalainen and Sami Niku were stiff Saturday after being in a fender-bender on Friday. They should return soon.

 

Snapshots: Red Wings, Blues, RFAs

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The Detroit Red Wings will operate without a captain once again this season, despite the expectation that Dylan Larkin will one day assume the role. Head coach Jeff Blashill told reporters including Ansar Khan of MLive that they will instead start with four alternates: Larkin, Justin Abdelkader, Frans Nielsen and Luke Glendening. Blashill and Steve Yzerman agreed to wait until the GM got to know the entire team better after taking over this offseason.

Larkin, 23, has become the face of the Red Wings franchise after putting up a career-high 32 goals and 73 points last season. As the old guard including Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk and recently Niklas Kronwall have moved on from their roles on the Red Wings, Larkin and other young players have taken on more and more responsibility. As the team transitions from rebuilding to contending over the next few years it seems likely that someone will eventually wear the “C” for Blashill and Yzerman, just not yet.

  • The St. Louis Blues are finalizing extensions for Steve Ott and David Alexander according to Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The pair of assistant coaches will be given extensions that match the length of head coach Craig Berube, who was given a three-year deal earlier this summer. The coaching staff under Berube completed a miracle turnaround this season with the Blues, taking them from last place in the NHL to Stanley Cup champions in just a few months.
  • Andy Strickland of Fox Sports Midwest has heard a few things on restricted free agents Patrik Laine and Mikko Rantanen, including about a recent short-term offer from the Winnipeg Jets to the former. The deal presented to Laine was in the “$5MM per year range” though Strickland notes that even on that short-term deal the Jets will “need to come up on money.” For Rantanen, Strickland reports that the free agent forward is not far away in terms of salary with the Colorado Avalanche and that the team’s last offer “blew past Nathan MacKinnon’s $6.3MM AAV.”

Minor Transactions: 09/12/19

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Training camp is upon us and physicals are underway for all players under contract. Yet, many NHL clubs still have work to do, with prominent restricted and unrestricted free agents still without deals for the 2019-20 season. Minor league affiliates, European teams, and college programs are also still making moves to finalize their plans for the coming season. Keep track of those minor transactions right here:

  • Colin Campbell will be in Colorado Avalanche training camp on a professional tryout after spending the first several seasons of his career with the Grand Rapids Griffins. The 28-year old forward was part of the 2017 Calder Cup squad and scored 19 points in 63 games last season.
  • Daniel Audette won’t be back with the Laval Rocket this season, instead signing an AHL contract with the Springfield Thunderbirds according to Stephane Leroux of RDS. A former first-overall QMJHL pick, the undersized Audette has never been able to turn his immense offensive skill into an NHL opportunity. He recorded 39 points in 71 games with the Rocket last season.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs will have Brandon Halverson in training camp on a professional tryout, the second goaltender to take a PTO with the team along with Michal Neuvirth. Halverson has spent the last three seasons bouncing between the AHL and ECHL in the New York Rangers system, but went unqualified this summer and became an unrestricted free agent.

Central Notes: Colorado’s Defense, Little, Kiviranta

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After impressive performances on the ice at their rookie tournament over the past two days, the Colorado Avalanche dream of a dominant group of franchise defensemen are much closer than they had initially imagined. The team already has two established cornerstones on defense in Samuel Girard and Cale Makar, but the play of 2019 first-round pick Bowen Byram and 2017 second-rounder Conor Timmins suggest they might be closer to join the other two sooner rather than later, according to Mike Chambers of the Denver Post.

Both will be with the team on Friday when training camp begins. Byram will have to prove that he’s ready for the challenges of the NHL already as a recently-turned 18-year-old. He broke out in a big way in the WHL with the Vancouver Giants, scoring 26 goals and 71 points, but he either must make the Avalanche or be returned to Vancouver. Timmins is a different story. The 20-year-old missed the entire 2018-19 season last year after dealing with concussion-like symptoms and likely will begin the season in the AHL until he gets some game experience, but could be recalled at any time if Colorado needs him.

  • One story that has been an issue for years in Winnipeg has been the Jets’ need to establish a No. 2 center. The team has gone with veteran Bryan Little over the years only to acquire a second-line center at the trade deadline the previous two years in Paul Stastny back in 2018 and Kevin Hayes in 2019. Unfortunately, due to cap issues, the Jets were unable to retain either player and are once again on the lookout for someone internally to step up into that role. For Little, the job remains his to lose. The 31-year-old’s numbers continue to decline little by little, scoring 15 goals and 41 points (his least productive season since 2009-10), but he remains the top option, according to Winnipeg Free Press’ Mike McIntyre. The only other options look to be Andrew Copp and Jack Roslovic, both of which seem like longshots to claim that role.
  • The Dallas Stars have a number of young prospects who might have a chance to make their opening day roster, including prospects Ty Dellandrea, Jason Robertson, Denis Gurianov and Riley Tufte amongst many. However, the Stars might have another player who could step up after Joel Kiviranta scored a hat trick against the New York Rangers squad Saturday, suggesting that the recently signed forward out of Finland could make an immediate impact for Dallas, according to NHL.com’s Mike Heika. The 23-year-old Kiviranta  is still adjusting to the smaller North American ice, but has a lot of experience playing amongst men in Finland after five years there. He has tallied 35 goals over the past two years there.

2007 NHL Draft Take Two: Fourteenth Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.”  Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended.  For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2007 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now.  Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

Here are the results of the redraft so far, with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall: Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks (1)
2nd Overall: Jamie Benn, Philadelphia Flyers (129)
3rd Overall: P.K. Subban, Phoenix Coyotes (43)
4th Overall: Logan Couture, Los Angeles Kings (9)
5th Overall: Max Pacioretty, Washington Capitals (22)
6th Overall: Jakub Voracek, Edmonton Oilers (7)
7th Overall: Ryan McDonagh, Columbus Blue Jackets (12)
8th Overall: James van Riemsdyk, Boston Bruins (2)
9th Overall: Wayne Simmonds, San Jose Sharks (61)
10th Overall: Kevin Shattenkirk, Florida Panthers (14)
11th Overall: Jake Muzzin, Carolina Hurricanes (141)
12th Overall: Kyle Turris, Montreal Canadiens (3)
13th Overall: David Perron, St. Louis Blues (26)

It always comes back to the Blues for David Perron. Now 12 years removed from being selected with the team’s third pick of the first round, Perron has played for five different NHL organizations. Amazingly, during all that time he has never signed a contract with anyone but St. Louis. Jumping right to the NHL after being drafted, Perron showed exactly why he was ranked as the tenth best among all North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting, despite teams letting him fall almost out of the first round entirely. The young forward put up 27 points in 62 games during that rookie season as a teenager, showing a glimpse of the incredibly consistent offensive player he would become.

In his sophomore season, Perron shot up the scoring list for St. Louis by becoming a catalyst on the powerplay and showing off his playmaking skills at even-strength. His 35 assists put him behind only Brad Boyes for the team lead, and his 50 points trailed only Boyes and David Backes. Not bad for a 20-year old still finding his footing at the professional level. After several injury-riddled seasons with the Blues, he ended up traded to the Edmonton Oilers for a package of picks and prospects (one of which ended up turning into Ivan Barbashev), before being flipped a couple of years later to the Pittsburgh Penguins for a first-round pick (which ended up turning into Mathew Barzal). His journey around the league wouldn’t end there as a year later he would go to the Anaheim Ducks, before signing back with the Blues that summer.

That homecoming was cut short when he was picked in the expansion draft by the Vegas Golden Knights, who promptly went all the way to the Stanley Cup Final on the back of Perron’s best offensive season. It always comes back to the Blues though, and Perron would sign again with St. Louis in the summer of 2018 only to win a Stanley Cup.

It makes sense then that the Blues would move Perron up their board and take him with the 13th overall pick. In fact, he’s probably a steal even there. The 31-year old ranks fifth in points among all players selected in 2007 but seems to have been continually overlooked throughout his career. While most players hit their peak in their mid-twenties, it almost seems as though Perron is getting better with age. He has 112 points in his last 127 regular season games and is an important part of the Blues forward group.

In 2007 it was Colorado that picked 14th after St. Louis, coming off their first season missing the playoffs in more than a decade. The team had still gone 44-31-7 under Joel Quenneville, but finished fourth in the extremely competitive Northwest Division. Joe Sakic had just put up 100 points as a 37-year old, and still looked like he had plenty left in the tank. Unfortunately Sakic wouldn’t play another full season, suiting up just 59 times over his last two seasons in uniform. Perhaps if they knew that they would have gone after a forward in the middle of the first round, but instead the team chose Kevin Shattenkirk.

That definitely worked out for Colorado, as shown by Shattenkirk’s spot in our redraft. He moved up into the top-10 after an excellent career, and will be unavailable this time around. So who could the team choose?

With the fourteenth pick of the 2007 NHL Entry Draft, who should the Colorado Avalanche select?  Cast your vote below!

[Mobile users click here to vote]

*Tragically, 17th overall pick Alexei Cherepanov died at the age of 19 and would never get a chance to suit up in the NHL.  He has not been included in this vote.

Early Notes: Mangiapane, Rantanen, Okhotyuk

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The Calgary Flames have had countless headlines written about their ongoing negotiation with Matthew Tkachuk, but they actually have another restricted free agent still unsigned as well. Andrew Mangiapane is in danger of missing the start of training camp if something can’t get done, which is likely more important for a player that has just 54 NHL games under his belt and is fighting for a full-time roster spot. Eric Francis of Sportsnet reports that the two sides are $200K apart on a one-year deal, with the Flames offering $800K and Mangiapane “looking for closer to $1MM.”

Calgary GM Brad Treliving told Francis that the team isn’t waiting on Tkachuk to sign Mangiapane, but with such a small difference in offers you can bet the team is trying to make sure they don’t overpay even the slightest, knowing they don’t have a lot of wiggle room under the cap ceiling. The Flames currently project to have just over $7.7MM in cap space, though there are a few ways to create some extra room, like placing defenseman Juuso Valimaki on long-term injured reserve.

  • Though Mitch Marner and Mikko Rantanen have raised eyebrows during their negotiations by being linked to clubs overseas, the latter decided to put that idea to rest in an interview with Russian outlet Business Online. Rantanen was very clear that the NHL is “the only option” for him this season and he won’t be discussing contracts with the KHL or other leagues. The Colorado Avalanche forward is coming off his second consecutive season scoring more than a point-per-game and has found a home on the top line beside Nathan MacKinnon. Still just 22, he could potentially become Colorado’s highest-paid player on his next contract.
  • The New Jersey Devils won’t be able to get a closer look at prospect Nikita Okhotyuk at the Prospect Challenge this weekend, as the team announced he is out six to eight weeks following surgery on a broken finger. Okhotyuk was selected in the second round in June and will miss regular training camp as well. The 18-year old defenseman is expected to return to the Ottawa 67’s for the 2019-20 season.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Colorado Avalanche

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2019-20 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Colorado Avalanche

Current Cap Hit: $65,884,761 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Samuel Girard (one year, $728K)
F Tyson Jost (one year, $886K)
D Cale Makar (two years, $881K)

Potential Bonuses

Girard: $182.5K
Jost: $850K
Makar: $2.5MM

Jost hasn’t quite been able to light it up like Colorado was hoping for when they made him a top-ten pick back in 2016.  He has been decent in a bottom-six role but hasn’t been able to move up much on the depth chart just yet.  Given their offseason moves, that’s likely to continue to be the case this season which makes him a strong candidate for a short-term second contract.

Makar made an immediate impact for the Avs in the postseason after signing at the end of his college campaign.  He’s projected to be a key part of their team this season and with the offensive upside he has, it’s reasonable to expect that he’ll be able to command a contract that could be comparable to some of the top ones that other post-ELC defenders will get in the coming weeks when they eventually sign.  He’s also a safe bet to reach some of his ‘A’ bonuses.  Girard’s quite the bargain considering he averaged nearly 20 minutes a night last season.  That will soon change with his extension (covered later) kicking in next season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Mark Barberio ($1.45MM, UFA)
F Andre Burakovsky ($3.25MM, RFA)
D Kevin Connauton ($1.375MM, UFA)
G Pavel Francouz ($950K, UFA)
F Vladislav Kamenev ($750K, RFA)
F Valeri Nichushkin ($850K, RFA)
F Colin Wilson ($2.6MM, UFA)
D Nikita Zadorov ($3.2MM, RFA)

Burakovsky’s qualifying offer was too rich for what Washington could afford so they flipped the underachieving winger to Colorado for a pair of draft picks.  He has shown flashes of being a capable top-six piece but also spent a lot of time on the fourth line last season.  The change of scenery could do him some good if he rediscovers his scoring touch but if not, he has to be considered a non-tender candidate in June.  Wilson hasn’t lived up to his draft billing but he has carved out a role for himself as a capable third liner.  He opted to take a pay cut to stick around and his current AAV is about what he should expect if he actually tests the open market next summer.  Nichushkin had a disastrous year in Dallas which led to a buyout.  The Avalanche scooped him up on a cheap deal that has to be considered his last chance.  If things don’t go well here, he’s probably back in the KHL in 2020-21.  Kamenev has dealt with significant injury issues in his two years with the organization.  Accordingly, unless he has a breakout offensive campaign, a one-year deal in the $1MM range is likely to happen a year from now.

Zadorov has been a player that has been in trade speculation for a while.  There isn’t quite the demand for players his size like there once was but he’s still a serviceable third pairing option at a minimum.  However, that price point for someone in that role isn’t ideal either.  He’s eligible for arbitration again next summer but another year like 2018-19 could have him in the non-tender discussion.  Connauton was the NHL piece that came back from Arizona for Carl Soderberg.  He’s more of a depth player than a top-four option so his next deal shouldn’t cost much more than his current price tag.  Barberio battled a couple of injuries last season while also spending a lot of time as a healthy scratch.  He’s still likely viewed as a reserve piece on their current depth chart so it’s unlikely he’ll play enough to command any sort of raise a year from now.

Francouz spent most of last season in the minors but with Semyon Varlamov now gone, the netminder will get his first crack at being a backup in the NHL at the age of 29.  His size will scare away a lot of teams no matter how he performs which will ultimately limit his market.  Still, given the backup goalie market, a strong showing could have him set to double his deal a year from now.

Two Years Remaining

F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1.8MM, UFA)
F Matt Calvert ($2.85MM, UFA)
D Ian Cole ($4.25MM, UFA)
G Philipp Grubauer ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Gabriel Landeskog ($5.571MM, UFA)

Landeskog has seen his value rebound considerably the last couple of years after a very rough 2016-17 campaign.  He surpassed the point per game mark for the first time in his career last season and was a very effective part of their top line.  While it feels like he has been around for a really long time already, he’ll only be 28 when his contract expires.  A max-term contract with a big raise is in his future if he can stay around the 70-point mark.  Calvert is coming off a career-best 26 points and is a capable defensive forward.  Even so, the deal seemed a little expensive a year ago and with the extra depth they have now, his role could actually be lessened which would make it hard for him to match this contract two years from now.  Bellemare was brought in to bolster the fourth line and should be able to do that.  Having said that, he’ll also be 36 when his contract is up and players that age with that type of role rarely get raises.

Cole landed a significant contract for someone that’s more of a stay-at-home player but he certainly had a good season.  It’s hard to imagine him getting another deal at this price tag as a 32-year-old but another multi-year deal is likely.

Grubauer was hit or miss last season and was the backup for most of the year although he got the nod in the playoffs when it counted the most (and did quite well).  Still, he has yet to play in 40 regular season games in a single season.  If he can do well with a starters’ workload, he could double his AAV two years from now.  However, it’s way too early to project whether he’ll be able to do that.

Three Years Remaining

F Nazem Kadri ($4.5MM, UFA)

Kadri was the key player coming back in the trade that saw Tyson Barrie (a pending UFA) and Alexander Kerfoot go to Toronto.  His tenure with the Maple Leafs ended poorly with another postseason suspension while he’s coming off a down year offensively.  However, he scored 32 goals in each of the last two seasons where he was a fixture in the top six, something that he’ll be with the Avs.  If he can get back to that form and restore some value, he’ll be a nice bargain contract for Colorado while setting himself up for a big raise down the road.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F J.T. Compher ($3.5MM through 2022-23)
F Joonas Donskoi ($3.9MM through 2022-23)
D Samuel Girard ($5MM from 2020-21 through 2026-27)
D Erik Johnson ($6MM through 2022-23)
F Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3MM through 2022-23)

While it seems unfathomable now, there was a time when MacKinnon’s contract was believed to carry some risk.  Committing that type of term to someone whose production was somewhat volatile on his entry-level deal was far from an automatic call.  However, the signing has worked out fantastic as all of a sudden, the 24-year-old has to be considered one of the top bargains in the league with his second straight season of at least 97 points.  Colorado is getting top line production at a price tag of a second liner.  Lots can change in the next four years but if he stays at this type of scoring pace, he’ll easily crack the $10MM mark on his next deal.

Donskoi is coming off a strange year.  He was productive in the first half of the season but managed just a single goal in his final 46 games (regular season plus playoffs).  Despite that, GM Joe Sakic wasted little time giving him this contract, a clear sign that the team believes he can become a top-six forward.  Given how he finished though, there’s some risk here.  Compher’s development has been slow but steady but he settled in on the second line last season.  That’s a good price tag for someone in that role but it took them buying no UFA years on his deal to get that AAV.  Assuming his development continues, he could be in the $5MM to $6MM range on his next contract.

Johnson, when healthy, has been a capable player in a top pairing role, one that’s not exactly his best fit.  However, he has dealt with significant injuries in three of the last five seasons which has limited his value somewhat.  He’ll be 35 at the end of his deal and by then, he’ll be seeing less playing time so it’s unlikely he’ll get a higher AAV next time around.  Girard signed his extension earlier this summer and while the term is certainly an eye-opener for a team that didn’t have anyone signed beyond four years from now, they’re banking on him being a fixture in their top four for the foreseeable future.

Buyouts

D Brooks Orpik ($1.5MM in 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

D Tyson Barrie ($2.75MM in 2019-20)

Still To Sign

F Mikko Rantanen

Rantanen set new career highs in goals (31), assists (56), and points (87) last season despite missing eight games due to an undisclosed injury.  He was a central element on their top line and at 22, he’s entering the prime of his career.  He’s widely considered to be the number two remaining restricted free agent and the expectation is that he’ll be getting a contract around the $9MM range which could vary a little bit depending on the term of the deal.

Best Value: MacKinnon
Worst Value: Johnson (because of the injury history)

Looking Ahead

Few teams have a cleaner cap situation than Colorado.  There really aren’t any bad contracts on the roster that could be classified as overpayments (which made picking a worst value pretty difficult).  Even with a big contract coming for Rantanen, they’ll have plenty of cap room for the upcoming season.

Looking ahead, two years from now could be a little rough with Makar and Landeskog both up while they’ll need to re-sign or replace Grubauer as their starting goalie.  The good news is that they have a lot of middle-tier short-term deals on the books which can be filled by cheaper options and prospects which will help offset the higher cap hits for those players.  That makes them about as well-equipped as possible to handle the crunch in 2021.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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