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Draft Pick Fall Out From Qualifying Round Results

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It was a dark day in the NHL on Friday as five teams were eliminated from playoff contention and, barring a miraculous last-minute comeback by the Toronto Maple Leafs, it could have been six-for-six. While the focus on these pivotal games yesterday was on those teams advancing and those team going home, there were also numerous draft picks impacted:

  • In addition to yesterday’s winners, it was also a big day for the New Jersey Devils. In a year in which the draft class is lauded for its depth, particularly in impact forwards, the Devils are now the proud owners of three first-round picks. New Jersey acquired Arizona’s first-rounder in the Taylor Hall trade and Vancouver’s first-rounder from Tampa Bay in the Blake Coleman However, both picks were lottery protected. Now that the Coyotes and Canucks have advanced, they will not take part in Monday’s second draft lottery to determine the No. 1 pick and as a result their picks have officially been sent to the Devils.
  • The Ottawa Senators will also have three picks in the first round of the 2020 Draft. Already owners of their own pick and San Jose’s, the Senators officially acquired the New York Islanders’ pick yesterday. The Isles had sent a lottery-protected first-rounder to Ottawa in the Jean-Gabriel Pageau trade, but with New York moving one they will not be in the running for a lottery pick. There is also a conditional 2020 second-round pick involved in that deal which will transfer to the Senators if the Islanders win the Stanley Cup. That dream for now remains alive for New York.
  • The clock is ticking on the Pittsburgh Penguins. The first-round pick that the team sent to the Minnesota Wild in the Jason Zucker trade contained a condition that the Penguins could keep the pick if it landed in the top 15. Now that the team has been surprisingly knocked out of the postseason, their first-rounder will fall in that range. They now have seven days to decided whether or not to retain the pick and send their 2021 first-round pick instead or to simply trade their 2020 selection. Obviously, the team will wait for the results of Monday night’s lottery, but regardless it seems likely that the Penguins will keep the pick and bet on themselves to make the playoffs next season.
  • One first-round pick that still remains undecided is the pick that will transfer to the New York Rangers as part of the Brady Skjei When the Carolina Hurricanes acquired Skjei, they promised the Rangers the later of their two first-rounders, their own and the Toronto Maple Leafs’, acquired alongside Patrick Marleau. However, the Toronto pick has conditions of its own; if the Leafs pick lands in the top 10, they will retain the selection and transfer their 2021 first-rounder instead. The only way for this to occur would be for Toronto to both lose Game Five against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Sunday and then win the No. 1 overall pick in Monday’s draft lottery. If the Maple Leafs lose both the game and the lottery, their pick will be No. 13 and by default will be earlier than Carolina’s, meaning the Hurricanes’ own pick will go to the Rangers. Should Toronto win on Sunday, it will remain to be seen how far each team goes in the playoffs and which pick will head to New York.

Brett Kulak, Jayce Hawryluk Confirm Positive COVID-19 Tests

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While the NHL hasn’t been making announcements on which players have tested positive for COVID-19, a handful of players have acknowledged that they have had the virus.  Two more have done so recently in Canadiens defenseman Brett Kulak and Senators center Jayce Hawryluk.

Following practice today, Kulak confirmed to reporters, including Sportsnet’s Eric Engels (Twitter links) that he was dealing with symptoms for a little more than a week after initially testing negative just prior to the start of camp.  Two positive tests quickly followed and he was only recently cleared to rejoin the team.  The 26-year-old is in the mix for a spot on Montreal’s third pairing for their series against Pittsburgh but after missing so much of camp, he might be on the outside looking in for next weekend’s start.

Meanwhile, Hawryluk was among those that tested positive back in March when the pandemic was just beginning.  He discussed what happened with Thomas Drance of The Athletic (subscription required) and wonders if he played through their last game (one in which he scored) with the virus.  Of the five Senators to test positive, the pending restricted free agent is the only one to publicly confirm his positive test.

Snapshots: Suter, McLeod, Senators Logo

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Switzerland’s leading scorer is headed to the NHL, but to which team exactly is still a mystery. Pius Suter has opted into his exit clause for the 2020-21 season with the expectation of signing in the NHL, the ZSC Lions of the Swiss NLA have announced. Head coach Rickard Gronberg also thanked and congratulated the young star on his move to North America. A former OHL prospect who has played at home in Switzerland for the past five years, Suter had shown flashes of scoring ability before but truly broke out this season with a league-leading 30 goals and 53 points in 50 games. The NLA has slowly been climbing the ranks of the top leagues in Europe and several players who have graduated from Switzerland in recent years have found instant success in the NHL. Suter, 24, dominated the Swiss ranks this season and has shown an innate ability to create offense. This sounds very similar to Chicago rookie Dominik Kubalik, who had nearly identical stats to Suter in the NLA in 2018-19 and went on to record 30 goals and 46 points in 68 games in an incredible debut season this year. Kubalik’s success continues a trend of Europeans finding a good fit with the Blackhawks, which could be why The Athletic’s Scott Powers reports that the club is considered a front-runner for Suter’s services. With little cap space and a relatively thin forward corps, a productive player on an entry-level deal would be an excellent addition for Chicago and Suter would also like the opportunity that the Blackhawks could offer. Suter is expected to make his decision in the coming days – and other teams are in the mix – but don’t be surprised if it’s Chicago who lands the exciting Swiss scorer.

  • Veteran grinder Cody McLeod is coming back for another year of pro hockey. The fan favorite agitator earned a one-way NHL contract for a decade before this season and instead settled for a one-year deal with the AHL’s Iowa Wild. To no surprise, McLeod was a hit in Iowa and a good leader for the young prospects as well and has earned an extension. The junior Wild announced that that they have signed McLeod to another one-year deal for 2020-21. McLeod only played in 21 games for Iowa, recording seven points (and 41 penalty minutes), but as long as McLeod remains a positive locker room influence and a menacing presence on the ice, he can play as long as he likes.
  • The Ottawa Senators are rewinding back to 2007. The Athletic’s Hailey Salvian reports that the franchise is returning to the two-dimensional logo that they debuted in 1997 – or at least one that looks very similar – next season. The 2D look was retired after a decade and replaced with the three-dimensional logo that the team donned this season. However, Salvian writes that the club has decided that they favor the more retro look. The two-dimensional logo does better represent the Roman style of their centurion logo in a way that the three-dimensional logo never could, and Ottawa fans are already excited about the return of the old logo. Salvian also writes that the new logo will be accompanied by redesigned jerseys, including a brand new third jersey. The Senators hope that these changes will drive merchandise sales and, more importantly, pair with a promising young roster, two top-five draft picks, and a long hiatus from hockey in the city to create an atmosphere of excitement in Ottawa ahead of the 2020-21 season and help to cure the league’s worst attendance numbers.

Offseason Keys: Ottawa Senators

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The offseason has arrived for at least seven teams that were not invited to take part in the play-in round that’s slated to begin in early August.  With that in mind, our Offseason Keys series is underway for the teams that are on the outside looking in.  Next up is a look at Ottawa.

The Senators committed to a full-scale rebuild over the last couple of years when they dealt away the majority of their top players.  Not surprisingly, the corresponding performance this season wasn’t particularly strong.  The good news is that they have built up a strong prospect pool and are set to add to that with two picks in the top five in October.  But hitting on those two selections is only a small part of what they will be looking to do this offseason.

Spend, Spend, Spend

For a team that, let’s face it, has shown a reluctance to spend towards the Upper Limit of the salary cap, this may seem like a strange header.  In normal times, they likely wouldn’t be going out of their way to take on contracts but this isn’t anywhere close to being normal times.  The cap isn’t going up and that means there are going to be plenty more motivated sellers this offseason than we’ve been accustomed to seeing.

Ottawa has a strong stockpile of picks and prospects already but there is always room for more at this stage of their rebuilding phase.  The more options they have, the better.  Those will likely be the currency getting used to make those deals and GM Pierre Dorion should be quite interested as a result.

The Senators would likely be shopping at a different end of the market though and it actually may wind up being to their advantage.  While higher-spending teams will be shopping for the best talent available and trying to drive a hard bargain to get the best deal possible, Ottawa’s previous willingness to take on high AAV deals that carry a lower salary is going to be appealing to teams looking to cut money.  (Their past trades for Marian Gaborik and Ryan Callahan – both injured players – provide another pathway to pursue if it’s a short-term deal as well.)  Rather than lose an impact player, parting with a decent sweetener to pawn off an inflated AAV is a much better alternative and Dorion should be poised to take advantage of that, perhaps better than any other team.

Duclair Deal

Last summer, the Senators played it safe with Anthony Duclair, a move that was certainly understandable given his past performance.  Instead of looking for a long-term deal, they opted for a one-year, $1.65MM pact which the winger certainly lived up to and then some this year.  While his production was still streaky at times, he finished up his year with 23 goals (a career high) and 40 points while his point-per-game rate of 0.61 was better than any other season in his career.

With salary arbitration rights, Duclair is looking at a nice raise this offseason even with the salary cap flattening out.  But will it be a long-term contract this time around or a short-term one?  He’s two years away from UFA eligibility so it’s at the typical point where the bridge contract is now done and a long-term deal is worked out.

That still doesn’t seem like an automatic outcome here, however.  As some of Ottawa’s prospects work their way up the system, is there going to be a spot for Duclair in their top six a few years from now?  If they think the answer is yes, then this is probably the best spot to buy out a UFA year or two at the very least.  But if not, another short-term pact (perhaps even another one-year contract) may be the better way to go even though it runs the risk of getting him to a point next summer where he opts for a one-year arbitration award to expedite a shot at the open market (for the second time after he was non-tendered in 2018).  This will be one of the trickier decisions that Dorion will have to contend with in the coming months.

Add A Top-Six Center

Part of the reason that Jean-Gabriel Pageau was in the middle of a career year before being shipped out at the trade deadline was that he was effectively Ottawa’s number one center by default which allowed him to average more than 19 minutes per game.  That’s not an ideal amount of ice time for him but in head coach D.J. Smith’s defense, he didn’t really have any other options.  Colin White struggled mightily in the first year of his new deal, Chris Tierney is best used on the third line, while Artem Anisimov and Nick Paul should be in even lesser roles.  It got to the point where Brady Tkachuk was tried in the middle at times and while he held his own, his willingness and ability to engage physically makes him a better candidate to stay on the wing.

Granted, Ottawa does have high hopes for Josh Norris but despite a stellar rookie campaign in the minors, he’s not stepping into that role right away.  Neither is Logan Brown, a player who hasn’t been able to put it all together just yet.  There’s a good chance that they’ll wind up with at least one center with one of those early selections but throwing them to the wolves right away with a spot on the number one line is asking for trouble.

It’s not an area that Ottawa is realistically going to be able to address in free agency as quite frankly, the UFA market for centers isn’t the greatest.  It’s also unlikely that they’d be the top bidder if there was one out there.  Instead, this is one spot they’ll likely have to make a trade to improve.  A number one pivot is doubtful but as teams are looking to free up money, some quality second liners should be out there.  Even that would represent a considerable upgrade on what their current options are and would allow their up-and-coming youngsters to ease into their roles which, from a long-term development perspective, would be ideal.   Someone with three or four years left on their contract would fit in relatively well and would be a nice addition for Dorion to make.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Prospect Notes: Cozens, Harvard, Beniers, Kings

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The future is bright for the Wild, Flyers, Senators, and Kings, per The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler. Each of those four clubs tied for the lead with four prospects making Wheeler’s top-50 list, headlined by Dylan Cozens of the Sabres in the top spot. The same can’t be said for the Lightning, Blue Jackets, Jets, Blackhawks, and Bruins, all of whom failed to register a single prospect on the list. Wheeler qualifies the case for the Jets and Blue Jackets as each had a pair of prospects close to making the list, and the Blackhawks, who have recently graduated players like Adam Boqvist and Kirby Dach, while blueliner Ian Mitchell garnered consideration.

  • As if tracking NHL prospects isn’t artful enough, it’s going to get a whole lot more complicated as college athletics tries to find its way amid the coronavirus pandemic. Harvard released a statement today announcing all classes will be offered online and on-campus students will be capped at 40% of the student body. Athletics are going to be impacted, but it’s not yet clear what kind of season, if any, college hockey will have in 2020-2021. As ESPN’s Chris Peters points out, that’s going to affect the next couple of drafts, as Harvard alone had a number of potential draft prospects, including potential first-rounder Matt Beniers.
  • The Los Angeles Kings have a big decision looming after winning the number two overall pick in next year’s draft. Of course, they have plenty of time to study their options, writes Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times. With an uncertain picture of next season, the draft presents the Kings with their largest dose of certainty. The top pick is going to be Alexis Lafreniere, leaving VP and GM Rob Blake with his pick of the rest. Harris provides a quote from Blake, who said: “You can narrow it down to three or four players where you’re really starting to zero in, instead of a group. But you’re going to review all the prep you did leading up to this one more time to have it fresh on your mind.” In addition, the Kings have three second-round picks and a pair each in the third and fourth round. Of course, though the Kings know when in the draft they’ll pick, they still don’t know when the draft will take place.

Poll: Who Is Most Deserving Of The No. 1 Pick?

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We asked and you voted and the Pittsburgh Penguins are the team that readers least want to see win the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft by means of a second draft lottery. The Penguins were closely followed by the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers and unsurprisingly these are three teams loaded with star power who finished in the top-five among teams in the qualifying round. Yet, the Carolina Hurricanes, who hold the second best record among qualifying round teams, gained just 1% of the vote, while the Montreal Canadiens and Chicago Blackhawks, the worst teams to qualify from each conference, finished fourth and fifth respectively in voting. This begs the question: who do you think is most deserving of the top pick?

Obviously, with the NHL Draft Lottery playing out as it did with each of the league’s bottom seven teams missing out on the top slot, the most deserving teams like the Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators, or Buffalo Sabres won’t be an option for No. 1 this year. Instead, it will be one of the to-be-determined playoff teams out of the 16 who will play in a “knockout round” to open the expanded 24-team playoff field. All of these teams finished above .500 this season, so a good team will only get better in the form of Alexis Lafreniere, the elite talent at the top of the draft board. All eight losers of the qualifying round will have even odds in a second running of the lottery, but which franchise is most deserving of this boost?

The NHL has no shortage of teams with a history of losing, but the Florida Panthers have a strong argument for the title of unluckiest. Florida, who entered the league in 1993, has just 18 playoff wins in franchise history. A dozen of those wins came in the team’s run to the Stanley Cup Final in 1996, in which they were swept by the Colorado Avalanche. The remaining six wins have come in just four playoff series over the past 22 season, none of which have been won by the Cats. This series win drought is the longest current streak in the NHL. The team has also struggled with attendance over the years, due both to location and performance. The Panthers finished just 29th in capacity attendance this season and could use a young star player to draw more fans. The current Florida roster is not without talent but is strapped for cap space and set to lose some strong players in free agency. An affordable entry level deal for a top pick would go a long way to keep the Panthers competitive in the Atlantic Division.

The Winnipeg Jets have improved since moving from Atlanta, but the team’s legacy is still one of failure. The Thrashers franchise, which has since become the second iteration of the Jets, entered the league in 1999. In 19 seasons, the club has qualified for the playoffs just four times and has won only 11 games and two series. Like the Panthers, the bulk of those wins came in just one postseason as the Jets won nine games in 2017-18. Unlike Florida, they have never appeared in a Stanley Cup Final. The Jets playoff fortunes have increased since leaving Atlanta, where they failed to win a single postseason game in more than a decade. The club may be able to figure out how to get to their first Cup Final without luck, but playing in a remote city with a passionate but small fan base limits the Jets financially and they could definitely use an affordable superstar like Lafreniere, even though the roster already contains a number of strong young players.

The Columbus Blue Jackets have an identical 11-20 playoff record to the Thrashers/Jets and seeing as how they entered the league one year later in 2000, it would seem they have been slightly more successful. Additionally, all of those wins have come within the past six seasons and the team has qualified in each of the past three years. However, the Blue Jackets have the unfortunate distinction of never coming close to a Stanley Cup in a way that no other NHL team can claim. Columbus has won just one playoff series – just last year in fact – in their existence, the fewest in NHL history, and in that season was eliminated ten wins short of a title, the furthest distance that any team can claim is their best. Columbus also lost three of their best players from the team that finally won a series last season. The Blue Jackets may be improving, but their fans have seen less playoff success than any team in the NHL and their roster is not one that seem likely to produce a Stanley Cup any time soon. Lafreniere would be a boost to the franchise the likes of which have never been seen.

The Blue Jackets’ partners in the 2000 Expansion class, the Minnesota Wild presented a return to the State of Hockey for the NHL and have always had the benefit of immense fan support. Yet, the Wild have struggled to give their fans much to truly root for. While their 26 playoff wins since they entered the league is far better than some of their peers, Minnesota has never made it to the Stanley Cup Final and were swept out of their lone Western Conference Final appearance, which came back in 2002-03. Minnesota has largely been a one-and-done team, winning just four playoff series in their existence. Regular season success can only get you so far and it would be good for the team and the league for Minnesota to see some more results in the postseason. The timing could not be better to land Lafreniere either; the Wild snapped a six-season playoff appearance streak last year and their roster is one of the oldest in the league. The team could desperately use a young centerpiece.

The original Winnipeg Jets, who moved to Phoenix and became the Arizona Coyotes in 1996, also deserve inclusion among teams who could use some luck. The Coyotes franchise is the oldest to have never appeared in a Stanley Cup Final, dating back to the Jets’ birth in 1979-80. In that time, they have just 41 playoff wins overall have qualified for the postseason just three times in the past 16 years. They have one of the longest active postseason droughts in the NHL, dating back seven years. The team also has the very unfortunate distinction of having the highest cap payroll in the league this season while placing just 28th in capacity percentage attendance. While star players have been a part of the franchise from time to time throughout its history, the current roster is lacking a young superstar, which is exactly what they need to increase fan interest as well as affordably improve their roster. Lafreniere would be the perfect fit.

As for other teams, the Toronto Maple Leafs have the longest active Stanley Cup drought at 51 years and are second only two Florida with a playoff series win drought of 14 years, so while they have a young, loaded roster, they may still deserve some sympathy. Similarly, while the Montreal Canadiens are the winningest team in NHL history and don’t need any more titles just yet, they are technically the worst team in the qualifying round and could desperately use the boost, as maintaining relevancy in the 21st century has proved difficult for the once-great franchise. The Vancouver Canucks are the oldest team never to have won the Stanley Cup and got painfully close with a Game Seven loss in the 2011 Final and have not won a series ever since. The Nashville Predators have also never won the Stanley Cup, but have gotten close. Like several other teams, sustained success in Nashville would have a beneficial affect on grassroots hockey. Finally, the New York Islanders are a strong team this year and have staying power in the Metropolitan Division, but their glory days of the 80’s are long gone and they have not made a Cup Final appearance in 35 seasons. Lafreniere landing in the New York market could also be great exposure for the game.

What do you think? Which team is most deserving of the No. 1 pick?

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Poll: Who Do You Least Want To See Win The No. 1 Pick?

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If Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly’s face didn’t give it away during Friday night’s NHL Draft Lottery, this result was not what the league was expecting or hoping for. In a season when a decorated Original Six franchise, the Detroit Red Wings, had one of the worst campaigns of all-time and the league’s most downtrodden franchise, the Ottawa Senators, had not one but two high-percentage chances of winning the top pick, the No. 1 overall selection will instead go to a to-be-determined “playoff” team.

With the league expanding the postseason field to 24 teams this season as a result of COVID-19 cutting the regular season short, 16 teams will vie for a chance to move through a “knockout round” onto a more standard version of the NHL playoffs. However, now those same 16 teams, all of whom finished above .500 this season, will also be in the running to win the top overall pick and the right to select a generational talent in forward Alexis Lafreniere. All eight losers of the qualifying round will have even odds in a second running of the lottery and one lucky team will get playoff experience and an elite young player this season. No one is going to be truly happy with the result (apart from the lottery winner and their fans of course) but who would you least like to see win the top overall pick?

The Pittsburgh Penguins might be at the top of many peoples’ lists. The franchise has won three Stanley Cups in the last decade and no one would be surprised to see them win again this year, especially given the fact that they finished  the regular season in seventh league-wide in points percentage. The Penguins are the best team slated to play in the knockout round, but if by some chance they lose to the Montreal Canadiens, Lafreniere could potentially join Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and company in a move that could extend the dynasty for years still to come. The thought of the talented young winger playing beside either of those superstars would be daunting to every other team in the league.

Finishing just behind Pittsburgh with the ninth-best points percentage in the league this year were the Carolina Hurricanes. The club has quietly accumulated a deep, talented roster including a number of elite young players. Carolina is set to contend for titles for many years to come, but Lafreniere would make them truly dangerous. Like the Penguins, the Hurricanes simply do not need the best player in the draft. Keep in mind  that they were also one of just two teams to vote against the expanded postseason model, making it especially twisted if they were to reap the benefits of this one-off lottery structure. As good as the Hurricanes were at times this season, they are a popular upset pick in the qualifying round against the New York Rangers and could wind up in the lottery.

The New York Islanders finished just outside the top-ten in points percentage this season and have a deep, experienced team. They also play a sound defensive system. While it works to win games, it isn’t the most exciting strategy and could limit the upside of an explosive offensive talent like Lafreniere. On top of that, the Isles don’t even know where they will be playing their home games next season and have suffered from poor attendance in recent years. It doesn’t exactly sound like an ideal landing spot for an exciting top prospect. Fortunately, the Islanders drew a plus matchup against the Florida Panthers and should advance past the knockout round if they can stick to their smothering defensive game.

Given their luck in the draft lottery over the past decade, it’s pretty gross to think about the Edmonton Oilers being in the running for another No. 1 pick. Likely soon to be the home of two MVP’s in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers landing Lafreniere as their fifth first overall pick and ninth top-ten pick since 2010 would really be something. With an improved NHL roster and a strong pipeline of talent, the Oilers are finally starting to be self-sufficient and don’t need Lafreniere like they might have in recent year. However, if the team can’t hold off a poor Chicago Blackhawks club in the knockout round, maybe they do need the pick.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are another team that is chock full of young talent and it would be an embarrassment of riches (and embarrassing for the league) to see them land Lafreniere. While the team would be in prime shape to finally snap their Stanley Cup drought with the addition, the Leafs are already well on their way and will be contenders for years and years to come even without the top pick. Additionally, should Toronto win the lottery, there would certainly be those that would cry foul about the whole situation. The Maple Leafs face the Columbus Blue Jackets in the qualifying round in one of the more evenly matched of the upcoming series. Toronto is likely the slight favorite, but could just as easily wind up in the lottery.

The current iteration of the Chicago Blackhawks is not good. However, they are also the most dominant franchise of this decade with three Stanley Cups. It’s not east to find many outside of Chicago who have pity for the current Blackhawks given their sustained success of late. With some of those core players still in place and some exciting young pieces starting to build up, the Blackhawks may already be back on the rebound without the assistance of Lafreniere. If they make it a series with the star-studded Oilers, it will be even more evident that they don’t need a top pick to stay relevant. Like the Maple Leafs, some will also be outraged if the Blackhawks win the lottery due to the perceived favoritism shown by the league on a number of occasions in recent years.

If you really want to hear conspiracy theories though, look no further than the possibility of the Montreal Canadiens winding up with No. 1 overall. Yes, the Canadiens have no business in a playoff series and would have been in the standard draft lottery anyway, but there will be plenty who think that it is far too convenient if the Habs win the top pick when a Francophone and Quebec native is the best player on the board. It used to be that Montreal – who don’t forget have more Stanley Cups than any NHL franchise – was able to claim the best French Canadian players in the draft regardless of draft order. If that opportunity should inadvertently occur once again, plenty of people might get upset at the league despite the fact that Montreal technically is the most deserving (read: worst) of the qualifying round teams. The NHL does not want that drama right now and its most decorated club frankly does not need special treatment, perceived or otherwise.

As for the remaining teams, the Winnipeg Jets, New York Rangers, and Vancouver Canucks were all better than their records implied this season and already have elite young players, the Florida Panthers and Arizona Coyotes may not have the fan bases to support a young star like Lafreniere, and I’m sure there are reasons to root against the Nashville Predators, Calgary Flames, and Minnesota Wild as well. If you can think of a valid reason why the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have one playoff series win in franchise history, don’t deserve a stroke of good luck, that’s fine too.

What do you think? Which team do you absolutely not want to see Lafreniere go to, either because of existing talent or complaints of foul play or for any other reason? The reality is that one of these 16 will end up with the best player on the board, which in many ways is already a loss for the league, but it can get much worse from here.

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Draft Notes: Ottawa, Buffalo, New Jersey, Backup Plan

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Last night’s NHL Draft Lottery did little for most of the seven teams that did not qualify for the postseason. A to-be-determined playoff team won the No. 1 pick, the Los Angeles Kings were the lone true beneficiary among the seven, moving up to No. 2, and the Ottawa Senators hold the No. 3 pick. This may seem like a win for Ottawa, but the team actually held the second and third picks prior to the lottery, giving them the best odds to win the first overall pick and a chance at having two top-three picks. Instead, they ended up with No. 3 and No. 5. The Senators will be just the fifth team in NHL history to hold two top-five picks, but it is still seen as a poor result by many fans. However, for those wondering if the team would react to their lottery results by moving one of their two picks, that is not in the plans. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch relays from Sens GM Pierre Dorion that he may listen to offers for the selections but is “99.9% sure” that he will keep the picks. Ottawa may not be able to land prize prospect Alexis Lafreniere, nor can they select both Quinton Byfield and Tim Stutzle, the two forwards competing to go No. 2, but they are guaranteed one of those two and will still land another elite player in a deep draft class.

  • The Buffalo Sabres had the least lottery odds of the seven non-playoff teams and ended up sliding from No. 7 to No. 8 with a playoff team winning the first overall pick. In a deep draft class, the Sabres will still get a great player with the eighth pick and The Buffalo News’ Lance Lysowski details their potential options. The one that sticks out most is OHL star center Marco Rossi, who has an interesting tie to the team. While Buffalo recently moved on from a large number of their hockey operations staff and their minor league coaches, among others, head coach Ralph Kreuger is still at the helm and will likely have a say in draft decisions given that the hockey operations staff will largely be made up of new names by the time draft day occurs. If Kreuger does get to weigh in, Rossi could be his preferred target if available. Kreuger coached the Swiss national team for more than a decade until 2010, but Lysowski notes that he still maintains contact with the programs from which Rossi came. Additionally, Kreuger coached Rossi’s father, Michael Rossi, in Austria in the early 90’s. The slick, play-making forward may not make it to Buffalo at No. 8, but if he does he would very likely be the pick.
  • The New Jersey Devils landed pick No. 7 last night, but also own the first-round picks of the Arizona Coyotes and Vancouver Canucks. Conditions limit either of those picks from belonging to New Jersey if they were to become No. 1 overall, so they will both be later on in the first round. As a result, they could become expendable if the right deal was on the table. Interim GM Tom Fitzgerald stated on a conference call following the lottery that he would consider trading one of the picks if the opportunity arose. New Jersey is already considered a wild card in this draft given their depth in talented forwards and a draft class defined by depth in this area, so the team might be targeting top defenseman Jamie Drysdale or top goalie Yaroslav Askarov at No. 7 and then one first-round forward might be enough if they can improve the NHL roster by moving the other pick.
  • What happens to the Phase 2 Draft Lottery if the league does not resume play? TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports that it would be the same as if all of the lower seeds in the knockout round were to lose. The even-odds (12.5% apiece) lottery would still place among the teams that finished 8-15 in inverse points percentage this season: Montreal, Chicago, Arizona, Minnesota, Winnipeg, New York Rangers, Florida, and Columbus.

Snapshots: Hub Announcement Not Coming Today, Draft Lottery, Blackhawks

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NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly put the kibosh on any expectation that the final announcement about the postseason’s hub locations would be revealed today, per TSN’s Pierre LeBrun. There was hope bordering on expectation that the chosen cities would be announced today, but there’s evidently much still to consider. In the meantime, let’s see what else is going on around the NHL…

  • Tonight’s draft lottery will decide who gets the top three picks in next year’s draft – assuming the winners of those picks fall in the bottom seven by record, writes The Athletic’s Sean McIndoe. Otherwise, we might be facing a second lottery once the play-in round decides the other eight teams of the lottery field. The Detroit Red Wings have the night’s best odds, but the top pick has only gone to the team with the best odds 30% of the time over the past decade. After the Red Wings, the Ottawa Senators hold each of the next best slots, one for their own pick, and one for the Sharks pick they acquired in the Erik Karlsson deal.
  • Chicago Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman hasn’t engaged with their impending free agents, a list largely comprised of arbitration-eligible restricted free agents, per The Athletic’s Mark Lazerus. Goaltender Corey Crawford is their highest-issue unrestricted free agent, as the 35-year-old netminder held sway between the pipes for two Chicago championships. Restricted free agent Drake Caggiula also presents an interesting case, writes Lazerus, as the speedster expected that his broken hand would be the end of his season. The long layoff and expanded playoff pool has presented Caggiula with an opportunity to build his case ahead of what’s expected to be a rather tepid free agency.

One Trade The Islanders Would Like To Have Back

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While we await the return of the NHL, it’s a great time to look back at some of the influential transactions in NHL history. Yesterday we looked at the Capitals ill-fated midseason acquisition of winger Martin Erat. The deal cost them Filip Forsberg, who has developed the way Nashville hoped he would, while Erat provided little value at all during his short stay in Washington. But if we’re going to look at trades that helped shape our current era of NHL hockey – for better or worse – we should start at the top (or the bottom).

For trades worth second-guessing, there are very few as satisfying as the deal made between the Islanders and Senators way back in 2001. The deal sent Zdeno Chara to Ottawa along with Bill Muckalt and a 1st-round pick in exchange for Alexei Yashin. It’s frankly amazing that a deal from 2001 would include players still contributing in the NHL today, some nineteen years later, but that speaks to the impact of this transaction.

To find where the Islanders went wrong, there’s no better place to start than with Chara. Lots must go right for a player to reach his full potential, but that’s exactly what happened after Chara went to Ottawa. The deal came after Chara spent parts of four seasons in Long Island, and the then-23-year-old hadn’t really taken off. He was coming off a season in which he played in 82 games, but managed only 9 points and a plus/minus of -27. The Islanders weren’t a playoff team, finishing the 2000-2001 season in fifth place with 52 points.

Of course, things went much better for Chara from that point forth, as the hulking blueliner earned six Norris nominations (one win), seven All-Star honors, and he won a Stanley Cup with the Bruins in 2011. He’s also the NHL’s active leader in Plus/Minus (288) and Defensive Win Shares (99). The Senators only got four seasons from Chara, but they were among the best regular-season teams in the NHL during those years, making the playoffs each of those four seasons, and even managed to beat the Islanders in the first round of the 2002-2003 playoffs.

To make matters worse, Chara wasn’t the only piece the Islanders sent out on that ill-fated day in 2001. Bill Muckalt also went north in that deal, though the right-winger is at least one piece Islanders’ fans don’t have to lose sleep over. He played just one season in Ottawa, and he would be out of the league not two years later.

There’s one final piece. The Islanders sent the 2nd overall selection in the draft to the Senators, a pick that turned into center Jason Spezza. Spezza starred in the middle for eleven years in Ottawa, making two All-Star teams as one of the game’s stellar goal creators. He’s 91st all-time in the NHL now in Adjusted Points (1015) and 92nd all-time in Assists (599). At age-37, he’s a veteran presence on a Toronto Maple Leafs team that will look to enter the playoff field with a win against Columbus whenever play resumes.

Considering the Senators nabbed two all-timers from New York, this has to qualify as a pretty good deal for them. But there’s a give-and-take to every good deal right? Perhaps not so much. The Senators sent Alexei Yashin to the Islanders. Yashin was a fine player, just a year removed from a second-place finish for the Hart Trophy, but they gave up a lot to get him. To make matters worse, the Islanders doubled down and gave him a 10-year, $84MM contract less than three months after the trade, a contract that would have paid Yashin through his age-37 season. For examples of players remaining viable that deep into their careers, we need not look any further than Chara and Spezza. Unfortunately, the Islanders bet on the wrong horse. Yashin wouldn’t come close to recouping the value the Islanders poured into him. They bought him out after the sixth year.

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