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Potential Compliance Buyout Candidates: Part III

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As the current Coronavirus crisis wears on, it seems more and more likely that the NHL will not be able to complete the full remaining regular season schedule and talk of an expanded playoff field might indicate that there will be no return to the regular season at all. That lost revenue is expected to impact the 2020-21 salary cap, likely keeping the current $81.5MM upper limit in place. Given that teams expected an increase, initially projected to be between $84-88.2MM, this stagnation could have a harsh impact on a number of clubs’ cap situations. As such, many expect that compliance buyouts will return in some form or fashion to ease that pain. These buyouts, which do not count against the salary cap, would allow for teams to open up space that they otherwise expected from a cap increase.

After taking a look at teams 1-10, then 11-20, here is a breakdown of the names that the final 11 clubs could use a compliance buyout on, if they opt to use one at all:

Ottawa Senators: Bobby Ryan

While the oncoming cap crunch caused by COVID-19 will not impact the Senators, who have sat at or near the bottom of the league’s salary ranks in recent years, owner Eugene Melnyk is not one to miss out on an opportunity to save money. In the case of Ryan, that would mean casting off a player who has overcome the adversity of addiction to resume his career, but don’t expect that to stop the Senators from moving on. Ryan’s remaining two years and $15MM in actual salary represents a large chunk of what Ottawa owes its current roster. Ryan has not played at a level becoming of a $7.25MM player at any point over the course of his time with the Senators, but especially over the past four years in which he has failed to crack 50 points in any season. At 33 years old, Ryan’s best days are behind him and Ottawa won’t hesitate to but him out and face the potential public relations backlash.

Philadelphia Flyers: Shayne Gostisbehere

The Flyers are right up against the salary cap and will have to create some space if the upper limit does not move this off-season as had been expected. The team has been trying to trade Gostisbehere in the midst of a down year, but to no avail. It may seem counter-intuitive for a contender to give away a 27-year-old regular defenseman for free via buyout, but Gostisbehere is trending in the wrong direction and has three years at $4.5MM AAV remaining on his deal. If Philly cannot find a trade, which obviously would be the more ideal solution, they may not have a better alternative to clear space without buying out a more impactful player. Some may point to last summer’s Kevin Hayes mega-contract as a worse deal to consider moving, but it seems highly unlikely that the team would move on from Hayes this soon after signing him, especially since his production this season has been on par with his career numbers.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Jack Johnson

It was pretty obvious right from the start that Johnson was not going to be a value player for the Penguins. Many were skeptical of his 2018 signing right from the start and he has done little to prove those critics wrong. A minus player whose offensive ceiling now sits in the mid-teens, Johnson is 33 and his best days are well behind him. The Penguins are another team that needs as much cap space as they can create to keep their roster together. Can they really afford to pay Johnson $9.75MM against the cap over the next three years to be a bottom pair defenseman who is more often a liability than an asset? Pittsburgh has the depth on defense to make up for the loss and could desperately use the cap flexibility elsewhere.

San Jose Sharks: Martin Jones

Entering an off-season with a deep goalie market, which could grow even deeper with compliance buyouts, few teams would be happier to have a get-out-of-jail-free card than the Sharks. Goaltending, and their starter Jones in particular, has been at the heart of San Jose’s struggles over the past two years. Once seen as a safe bet to be a solid long-term starter, Jones has been unable to produce even passable numbers in the past couple of seasons. However, with four years and $23MM remaining on Jones’ deal – a $5.75MM AAV, it seemed hopeless for the team improve in net without either an expensive buyout, a painful trade, or a very overpriced backup. This scenario would be exactly what the team needed and there is little doubt that they would move on swiftly from Jones, re-focusing his cap space on improving the roster, most important of which would be finding his replacement(s).

St. Louis Blues: Alex Steen

Steen may be a respected veteran coming off of a championship season, but he is also one of the Blues’ few reasonable candidates for a buyout. St. Louis does not have many long-term contracts and has arguably no bad long-term contracts. Steen, 36, is also one of only three players over 31 signed through this season. Without many bad deals or regressing veterans to compete with, Steen’s final year at $5.75MM looks ugly, especially since his production has dropped off immensely in each of the past two seasons to just 17 points this year. Perhaps the only other buyout option for St. Louis would be backup goaltender Jake Allen if the determine that Steen’s experience and versatility is of greater value. However, Allen is younger and cheaper and coming off a bounce-back season in which he was one of the best backups in the NHL. Steen seems like the more reasonable selection.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Tyler Johnson

Tampa Bay was always going to have to blow up its core to accommodate its young players. However, a flat cap not only ensures that this time has come this off-season, it also makes the situation much worse. In order to sign a number of key restricted free agents, the Bolts must move out a considerable amount of salary this summer. Normally, players like Johnson, Yanni Gourde, and Ondrej Palat would have enough value to garner a nice trade return rather than needing a buyout. However, in an off-season where most teams could be up against the cap, acquiring a $5MM+ player will be easier said than done. Making it even harder is that all three hold No-Trade clauses and may not be willing to accept a deal to the types of team that can afford to acquire them. Of this trio, the Lightning are most likely to keep Palat; although he is the most expensive, he is also the most valuable. Gourde is slightly more expensive than Johnson’s $5MM AAV, but is also slightly younger and has largely outplayed Johnson over the past few years. Gourde is a more valuable asset than Johnson, which could mean he is easier to trade or it could mean that Tampa tries to find a way to keep him. Johnson seems like the odd man out. An undersized forward whose numbers fell off considerably this season to just 31 points and who is signed for four more years, Johnson is a trade risk, especially in a cap-strapped market. The odds are that some team would find a way to take him via trade – if he agrees – but if the Lightning get desperate they may have to buy him out. He’s their most reasonable candidate if it comes to that.

Toronto Maple Leafs: None

The Toronto Maple Leafs really don’t have any need for a compliance buyout at this point in time. The team is very young, many players have been extended recently, and arguably none have fallen so short of expectations that they warrant a buyout. Unless the Leafs trade for a bad contract simply to use their compliance buyout, it would be a surprise to see the club get in on the action this off-season.

Vancouver Canucks: Loui Eriksson

The Canucks have wanted to get rid of Eriksson for some time and with a compliance buyout they would be free to do so. The veteran forward has been one of Vancouver’s highest paid players since he joined the club in 2016, yet he has never recorded more than 30 points in a year through four seasons with the Canucks. At odds with coaches and severely underperforming relative to his $6MM AAV, Eriksson has worn out his welcome in Vancouver. However, he still has two years remaining on his contract. The team would be quick to erase that from the books. This buyout is a no-brainer; what is more interesting is whether Eriksson can return to his status as a valuable two-way forward with another team.

Vegas Golden Knights: None

Like the Maple Leafs, the Golden Knights simply don’t have any obvious candidate for a buyout. They have done well with their long-term contracts and have a roster constructed of players who they want in the lineup, including several who they have recently re-signed. That includes Nick Holden, who may be the only player who could have been considered an odd man out but recently took a pay cut to re-sign for two more years with Vegas. No one else jumps out as a player that the club would entertain giving up for free.

Washington Capitals: Nick Jensen

As good as the Capitals are and have been, this one is a toss-up because there are a number of players who could go. T.J. Oshie was brought in to win a Stanley Cup and has accomplished that task. He is still producing at a high level, but could the team cut ties with the 33-year-old while they have the chance rather than face the remaining five years and $28.75MM left on his contract? Lars Eller and Carl Hagelin, both on the wrong side of 30 and both signed for three more years, are in a similar boat. Their scoring is fine relative to their cap hit, but will it continue to be through the length of their contracts? Depending on how much room the Capitals may need to clear, any of these three could be a candidate for a buyout. However, Washington can impact their performance and their locker room far less by opting for Jensen instead. In his first full season with the team, Jensen has not been bad, but he has drawn his fair share of criticism. Jensen’s offense, though not typically a hallmark of his game, has been non-existent and he has been prone to turnovers and blown assignments. If the Capitals need to use a compliance buyout, they can likely find a better use for $7.5MM over the next three years.

Winnipeg Jets: Mathieu Perreault

The Jets have great depth at forward an nearly everyone carries the weight of their contracts. Perreault is an exception. The 32-year-old’s point totals have fallen in each of the past three seasons to just 15 points in 49 games this year. At a cap hit of $4.125, Perreault is not doing enough. He’s not the answer at second-line center and he’s overpaid to play in the bottom-six. There’s no place for Perreault and the team would likely be willing to move on a year early. While Bryan Little has also shown signs of slowing down and his signed for far longer and for more than Perreault, his lack of impact in 2019-20 is tied to injury. Even if injury issues persist, Little’s cap hit does not cause a problem when he is not active, so Perreault still makes more sense a buyout candidate.

West Notes: Engelland, Canucks, Steen

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The Vegas Golden Knights already have a roster full of defensemen, including six NHL players already under contract with another four defensemen in Nicolas Hague, Jimmy Schuldt, Dylan Coughlan and Jake Bischoff all waiting to get their chance to break out with the franchise.

That leaves a big question question mark for soon-to-be UFA and team leader Deryk Engelland. SinBin Vegas’ Ken Boehlke suggests that the writing is on the wall that the veteran defenseman’s time with the team could be over soon. The scribe points out that Engelland hasn’t been a favorite of new head coach Peter DeBoer since he took over on Jan. 16. He has only played in five games under the new coach and was scratched in the team’s last 12 games and 17 of the team’s previous 18 games.

DeBoer did recently praise Engelland’s dedication to the team:

To a man they all want to win the Stanley Cup, that’s their number one motivation,” said DeBoer. “They are willing to do whatever they have to do to be a part of it. I look at Deryk Engelland as an example of that. Tough situation, veteran guy, we had to scratch him some games here recently before the pause. The messaging to me was ‘I just want to be a part of this. When you need me, let me know, and I’ll be ready to go.’ You can’t have enough of that and that’s what makes groups like this special.”

However, it’s quite obvious that the team may be looking beyond Engelland in the future despite the veteran’s intent on continuing his playing career. He currently has a goal and six points in 49 games, while averaging his lowest ATOI (17:33) in his time with Vegas. With a number of blueliners waiting for their chance in the AHL, Vegas may have seen the last of him.

  • TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that while many teams are against the NHL’s recent memo that is suggesting the league have the NHL Entry Draft in June, the Vancouver Canucks are a team that is likely going to be in favor of the deal. The Canucks traded their first-round pick last offseason to Tampa Bay (now owned by New Jersey) and would rather give the Devils a non-lottery pick this year, rather than an unprotected one for the 2021 draft. The Canucks are currently in the playoffs as of this moment. However, if play does resume with a October/November draft, the Canucks could slip out of the playoffs and be forced to move a lottery pick then.
  • Tom Timmermann of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that while there is a lot of talk of the St. Louis Blues buying out veteran forward Alex Steen in the offseason next year in order to make room for UFA Alex Pietrangelo, the scribe believes that’s an unlikely scenario. The scribe says it’s more likely that Steen, one of the most popular players on the team and a leader as well, is more likely to retire at the end of this season. That could solve a tough issue of being forced to buy him out, which the team might hesitate to do after the years of service both on and off the ice.

More On Alex Pietrangelo’s Pending Free Agency

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The St. Louis Blues have become the target of much speculation over the last week, after issuing extensions to Sammy Blais, Mackenzie MacEachern and most notably, Marco Scandella. The latter deal ate up another $3.275MM of cap space on the back end for each of the next four years, precious real estate for a team with arguably the top pending UFA. Alex Pietrangelo, the Blues captain, and best defenseman is up for a new contract.

Over the weekend Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic wrote about a $9MM-per-season ask that may have to come down thanks to the stagnant cap and today Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet gave some similar thoughts on the radio:

I don’t think there has been a lot of dialogue on this one this year. I think there has been on again and off again negotiations. I believe that the Blues made it clear they were willing to go around [Oliver] Ekman-Larsson. Ekman-Larsson is $8.25×8, and I believe the Blues are willing to go a little bit higher because he’s their guy, he’s their captain, they won the Cup and everything. But I don’t believe they were willing to go into the [$9MM/year range] or anything more than that and that’s where they were stuck at this particular point in time.

It is important to remember some of the moves that Blues GM Doug Armstrong has made in the past with key players. At the 2017 trade deadline Armstrong traded away pending free agent Kevin Shattenkirk despite the Blues sitting in a playoff spot. They would eventually finish with 99 points and advance to the second round, only to lose to the Nashville Predators in six games (scoring just 11 goals in the series). Even though Shattenkirk was an absolutely integral part of the Blues at that point—his 42 points through the first 61 games trailed only Vladimir Tarasenko for the team lead—it was clear he was not going to sign a long-term deal before testing free agency. Armstrong bit the bullet and traded away a franchise star for futures.

In 2018 is was much the same story for the Blues. As the trade deadline approached, St. Louis was in the midst of a season-long seven-game losing streak, but still just within a few points of a playoff position. They were obviously still a strong club, but it didn’t seem to be their year (that would come soon enough). When the Winnipeg Jets came calling, Armstrong decided to trade off another star player that wouldn’t be re-signing. Paul Stastny, who sat fourth on the team in scoring through the first 63 games, was dealt for another package of futures including a first-round pick.

Make no mistake, Shattenkirk and Stastny are not Pietrangelo. The 30-year old is one of the most well-respected captains in the league, a Norris-level defenseman, and a current Stanley Cup champion. He also has been with St. Louis for his entire career and would go down as one of the best players in franchise history if he never played another game. His two-way skill is a huge part of what makes the Blues so special, which makes it easy to understand why he too wasn’t dealt away at the deadline.

But there will be a limit for the Blues and if Armstrong’s history is any indication, he won’t hesitate in moving on if he feels that’s what right for the organization. The fact that the salary cap situation is still so unclear makes the $79MM+ in commitments the team has already made for next year quite dubious, meaning they would have to move out some significant money to make room. Of course, there is still time to do that, especially if compliance buyouts or some sort of salary relief is put in place.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

West Notes: Pietrangelo, Talbot, Gagner

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The season isn’t even over yet, but the St. Louis Blues have been busy adding talent to their future with two signings on defense. The team extended defenseman Marco Scandella, while agreeing to term with collegiate Scott Perunovich on a contract. That leaves quite a bit of depth on the Blues’ blueline and leaves even more questions on whether St. Louis intends to sign pending unrestricted free agent Alex Pietrangelo to a long-term deal.

In his most recent mailbag, The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford (subscription required) writes that he believes the Blues continue to prioritize signing Pietrangelo and believes that his $9MM AAV asking price might now be too high and he might have to accept less or a short-term deal as the NHL deals with the effects of COVID-19. Regardless, the Blues will likely have to unload some contracts to make a deal possible as Rutherford suggests the team is likely going to have to move backup goaltender Jake Allen or buying out forward Alex Steen. Allen, in particular, could have some value after posting a 2.15 GAA and a .927 save percentage in 24 appearances, and could attract some teams looking for help in net as he will have one year remaining next year at $4.35MM.

  • Speaking of goalies, Calgary Flames veteran Cam Talbot, who will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, told Sportsnet’s Eric Francis, that he is looking for one more chance to be a starting goaltender again and that will be his basis for signing with a team. “I wouldn’t rule out coming back, but, obviously, my goal coming here was to show the rest of the League that I still have it in me to be a starting goalie and I think I accomplished that,” Talbot said. The 32-year-old had a bounce-back season in Calgary after signing a one-year deal with the Flames with a 2.63 GAA and a .919 save percentage in 26 appearances as the backup to David Rittich.
  • In his most recent mailbag, Sportsnet’s Mark Spector suggests that there is a strong likelihood that the Edmonton Oilers will re-sign fourth-line center Sam Gagner to another short-term deal. He believes that Edmonton general manager Ken Holland looks at Gagner as a future member of his front office in the same way he looked at Dan Cleary, Kris Draper and Kirk Maltby when he was with the Detroit Red Wings. On top of that, Gagner is likely looking for a one-year deal at under $1MM, a contract that a team like Edmonton would value considering how top-heavy the team is in expensive contracts. Edmonton is also Gagner’s family’s home, suggesting that is where he would prefer to stay.

Mackenzie MacEachern Signs Two-Year Extension

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The St. Louis Blues aren’t on holiday. After extending both Sammy Blais and Marco Scandella earlier this week, the team has announced a new two-year contract for Mackenzie MacEachern. It’s a one-way contract for the depth forward, that will carry an average annual value of $900K and take him through the 2021-22 season.

Interestingly, MacEachern was scheduled to become a restricted free agent at the end of the season after playing in exactly 80 NHL games through the first part of his career. That’s the threshold he needed to meet to be ineligible for Group VI unrestricted free agency, meaning the Blues may have dodged a bullet by having him in the lineup just before the season was suspended.

The 26-year old forward has recorded 10 goals and 15 points in those 80 games, seeing fewer than nine minutes of ice time on average. MacEachern will serve as some inexpensive depth for the Blues as they head into next season trying to squeeze a talented roster into a stagnant salary cap, something that will be made even more difficult if they try to bring back captain Alex Pietrangelo.

MacEachern’s new contract leaves just two more pending restricted free agents on the Blues roster—Jacob De La Rose and Vince Dunn.

Marco Scandella Agrees To Four-Year Extension

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The St. Louis Blues are taking care of business. After extending Sammy Blais yesterday, the team has announced another new contract, this time for Marco Scandella. The veteran defenseman has signed a four-year extension that will carry an average annual value of $3.275MM. Scandella was scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season after being acquired from the Montreal Canadiens earlier this year.

Because of the extension, the Canadiens will receive an additional draft pick—the Blues’ 2021 fourth-round selection—from the trade to go with the original 2020 second-round pick St. Louis gave up. That deal came just a few weeks after sending a 2020 fourth-round pick to the Buffalo Sabres for Scandella, making this flip quite the impressive transaction for Montreal GM Marc Bergevin.

Scandella, 30, is coming off a five-year, $20MM deal he signed with the Minnesota Wild in 2014. At that point he was considered a rock-solid defensive partner that could play in a lot of situations, but his stock fell considerably over the last few years in Buffalo. In St. Louis, that kind of stay-at-home presence is exactly what will be asked of him after he spent most of his short stint alongside young star Colton Parayko. At a $3.275MM cap hit he essentially replaces Jay Bouwmeester, who is still contemplating his playing future after his cardiac episode but is scheduled for unrestricted free agency.

Any extension for a defenseman in St. Louis will come with other questions though, as free agency also looms for captain Alex Pietrangelo. The team now has five NHL defensemen locked up through next season, for a total of more than $18MM. Pietrangelo would increase that total quite substantially, something that might not be possible given the expected salary cap stagnation coming from the current pause.

St. Louis Blues Extend Sammy Blais

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The St. Louis Blues have seemingly made the most of some down time during the league pause. The team has announced a new two-year contract with forward Sammy Blais. Blais has earned a raise from his current $850K deal to a $1.5MM AAV on his extension.

Blais, 23, has recorded six goals and 13 points in 40 games so far this season. Blais’ struggles with injuries have persisted this season, as he has missed 28 games due to surgery on his right wrist. Yet, when healthy he has been nearly three times as productive than he was last season. A big winger who isn’t afraid to play physically but also has some finesse to his game, Blais very well could continue to grow into much more dangerous scorer for the Blues over the course of his new contract, especially if he can stay healthy.

With Blais signed, the defending champs have gotten one of two priority RFA’s under contract. Blais would have had arbitration rights this summer, but instead will hold off on that process for at least another couple of years. Now, the Blues will turn their attention to defenseman Vince Dunn. Dunn, who lacks arbitration rights, nevertheless will need a new deal when his entry-level contract expires this off-season. Mackenzie MacEachern, Jacob de La Rose, and Derrick Pouliot are other RFA’s of note for the Blues this summer.

Scott Perunovich Named 2020 Hobey Baker Award Winner

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Late on Saturday night, the NCAA announced (Twitter link) the winner of the 2020 Hobey Baker Award for the top NCAA men’s ice hockey player.  Blues prospect Scott Perunovich took home the prize, beating out Bruins prospect Jeremy Swayman and undrafted free agent Jordan Kawaguchi.

Perunovich becomes the sixth player from Minnesota-Duluth to win the award which is a record among NCAA teams.  The 21-year-old was named the NCHC’s top offensive defenseman for the third straight season after recording six goals and 34 assists in 34 games this season for the Bulldogs.

It has been an interesting journey for Perunovich when it comes to his NHL path.  Initially undrafted in his first two years of eligibility, he was vaulted onto the radar after his first college year which convinced St. Louis to pick him in the second round (45th overall) back in 2018.  Since then, his stock has only risen and he now stands as one of their top prospects.

Last month, Perunovich agreed to terms with the Blues on two separate entry-level deals, foregoing his senior season in the process.  Which contract ultimately gets signed will depend on what happens to the current season which is on hold due to the COVID-19 pandemic.  If play resumes, Perunovich will burn the first year of his deal this season and will be eligible to play for St. Louis in the playoffs if they want to use him.  If not, the contract will begin in 2020-21.

PHR Panel: Prospect Pontificating

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We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on a prospect that hasn’t yet made his NHL debut.

Q: Which already-drafted prospect outside of the NHL excites you the most?

Brian La Rose:

The question of when Wild winger Kirill Kaprizov will sign with Minnesota has been ongoing for a while. The first season PHR covered was the 2016-17 campaign where his contract in the KHL was expiring and there were questions as to whether or not he’d come to North America. Fast forward to today. His contract in the KHL is expiring and there is hope that he’ll finally cross the pond. I’m excited to see if he lives up to the hype.

There is plenty of reason for optimism. In recent years, he has progressed from being a good KHL winger to a legitimate star and actually led the KHL in goals (33) and points per game (1.09) this season. A few years ago, the thought was that he could come in and play right away. Now, the hope is that he can come in and play on the Wild’s top line right away.

Over the last few years, Minnesota has been a decent team but is missing that key piece or two to prop them up from being a bubble team. Kaprizov has the ability to help them do just that. Assuming he plays next season (even this year is a possibility if regular season games resume), he could be the player to help spark their turnaround. It seems we’ll soon find out if he winds up being well worth the wait.

Holger Stolzenberg: 

I find myself quite intrigued by the prospects in this upcoming draft, but that doesn’t answer today’s question. Considering that I’m German, I’ve always been fascinated by German prospects and with the continuing improvement in German-born players that last few years (very interested to see how Tim Stuetzle develops), I’m always watching prospects ready to come to the U.S closely.

The guy I’ve been most interested in the last couple of years is Carolina Hurricanes prospect Dominik Bokk. He was originally drafted 25th overall in 2018 by the Blues and was a key part of the trade which brought Justin Faulk to St. Louis. Bokk is considered to be quite the talent, joining the SHL at age 18, but has struggled to play among men, scoring nine goals in two seasons with Vaxjo. He then went over to top-ranked Rogle where he struggled even more, but after a dominating performance for Germany at the World Juniors this last year took off, scoring 10 goals since returning, while only averaging 12-13 minutes per game.

He’s expected to arrive and spend a season in the AHL where the Hurricanes already moved out a bunch of prospects out of their AHL system, including Julien Gauthier, Janne Kuokkanen and Eetu Luostarinen to give some playing time for incoming players, including Bokk. I wouldn’t be surprised if he dominates in his first AHL year and we’ll see how he develops, but I just get excited about Bokk as a prospect.

Zach Leach:

There are a number of talented future stars among the selections from the past couple of years—and even more in the upcoming draft class—but in my opinion “excitement” for a prospect peaks the closer he is to making an NHL impact.

For that reason, to me Kaprizov has to be the most exciting prospect outside of the NHL. The 2015 Minnesota Wild pick has been teasing North American fans for years with stunning numbers in the KHL for such a young player. The 22-year-old could be the second coming of Artemi Panarin and I believe he finally makes the jump this summer and takes on a top-six role for the Wild right away next year. Kaprizov is simply a dynamic offensive talent and gifted scorer who I would be surprised to see struggle with translating his penchant for points to the NHL. He would be my 2020-21 Calder Trophy favorite the minute he signs in Minny.

As for more recent picks, I continue to be impressed by Buffalo Sabres prospect Dylan Cozens. A player that I was high on when he was drafted last year, I feel Cozens was an outstanding value at No. 7 overall. For the sake of development, he was better off back in the WHL this season, where he again proved to be one of the league’s best players, rather than with a struggling Sabres squad. However, I expect the well-rounded power forward to break camp in Buffalo next season and make an impact for a team desperate for more talent, compete, and IQ in their forward corps.

Gavin Lee:

There’s no doubt that Kaprizov will get the juices flowing again when he finally does come over, but the will-he-won’t-he of the last few years has me drained of any excitement.

A really good case could be made for Alex Newhook, who has just oozed top-line NHL potential while dominating his NCAA competition. The Colorado Avalanche draft pick—16th overall in 2019—scored 19 goals and 42 points in 34 games for Boston College and was just named the Tim Taylor Award winner as NCAA Rookie of the Year. Newhook was somehow left off the Canadian roster at the World Juniors this year (they won gold, so I guess it was the right choice?) but you can bet he’ll be at the next one, before making his mark at the NHL level down the road.

Still, as much as this may cause some chuckles in the back, the prospect that excites me the most is still Joe Veleno. The QMJHL star and Detroit Red Wings prospect jumped to the AHL last season and recorded just 23 points in 54 games, but that performance comes with a few caveats. First, and most importantly, Veleno played a good chunk of the season as a teenager—something that isn’t normally allowed for a player drafted out of the CHL. His case was different because of the exceptional status he was granted to enter the CHL a year early; five years of junior meant he was eligible to jump to professional hockey.

The other was the overall scoring ineptitude of the Grand Rapids Griffins. Amazingly, Veleno’s 11 goals actually tied him for third on the team, behind only AHL veterans Chris Terry and Matt Puempel. Five of those goals actually came in his final 16 games of the season, hopefully pointing to a higher level of production next year.

It’s hard to explain exactly why Veleno excites me when I watch him play, but he does. At the World Juniors I thought he was arguably the most well-rounded forward in the tournament, and perhaps that’s why I have such high hopes. I think he can be a star offensively in the NHL if he’s put in that role, but I also think he could be one of the league’s best shutdown forwards. What better organization to be in than one helmed by Steve Yzerman.

PHR Panel: Expansion Draft Considerations

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We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on the upcoming 2021 expansion draft.

Q: Which team should be most afraid of the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft?

Brian La Rose: 

This is a tough one to answer a year out as a lot will change between now and then. Who is added over the offseason in trades and free agency can certainly affect things. So too can teams deciding to sign players to early extensions or holding off in order to leave them exposed to protect someone else.

Personally, I’m of the opinion that teams with strong defensive depth are the ones that should be the most worried. With a 7-3-1 protection system, anyone with a fourth defender worthy of keeping either risk losing them or their fifth-best forward if they switch to the alternative eight skater protection list.

Using that mindset, Carolina comes up as a team that should be concerned about Seattle’s draft.

Their surefire protectees at this point on the back end are Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, and Brady Skjei. But does Haydn Fleury take another step forward next year and become tougher to leave exposed? Are they able to get Dougie Hamilton signed to an extension? If so, he’s another must-protect player. What about Jake Bean, a well-regarded prospect that will be eligible to be picked. It’s reasonable to think that they may want to protect four defensemen which means only four forwards could be protected. But with a strong and relatively forward corps as well, they’re setting up to lose either a strong defenseman or a top-six forward. Having depth is great but a year from now, they’re going to lose an impact player.

Holger Stolzenberg: 

When looking at the upcoming expansion draft, there are a number of teams that may have to give up some very good players to the incoming Seattle franchise. While I can easily point to teams like Toronto and Tampa Bay as franchises that have a lot of talent, the team that seems to currently have the most talent at risk is the St. Louis Blues. Granted, there are still quite a few questions that need to be asked, including what will the team do with Alex Pietrangelo? If they re-sign him, then the team is overloaded with defensemen and might have to consider the 8 players and a goalie scenario as opposed to 7-3-1.

However, I sense that even if the team does find a way to bring Pietrangelo back—which I think is likely—then the team will have to ship out a blueliner (maybe Justin Faulk) to give the team some salary cap relief and keep a 7-3-1 scenario, considering all the talent. The Blues have quite a bit of offensive firepower with a lot of young talent. The team will obviously keep Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz if he is extended, likely Brayden Schenn–maybe David Perron, maybe not. That’s the veterans. What about Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Sammy Blais? They are key young pieces with a ton of talent. That still leaves quite a few players exposed, including Oskar Sundqvist, Ivan Barbashev, Zach Sanford…

So, no matter what moves they make, the Blues should lose a quality player. Don’t forget in goal…before Jordan Binnington came along, Ville Husso was considered their goalie of the future. Could he be the goalie of the future in Seattle now?

Zach Leach:

The expansion draft format, which will be the same for Seattle as it was for Vegas, is designed to hurt every team. The protection schemes combined with the exposure requirements ensure that each club must expose at least one or two players of value. However, the rules are most unfavorable not to the teams with the most high-end talent, but to the teams with the most depth, specifically those with considerable youth and homegrown talent signed long-term.

While rosters are sure to change before the Expansion Draft occurs—meaning projections will become much more accurate following the upcoming off-season—there are several teams who already look like they could be in trouble protecting their top assets from exposure. In my opinion, the standouts are the Buffalo Sabres, Calgary Flames, Carolina Hurricanes, Nashville Predators, New York Islanders, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Washington Capitals. Each of these teams have strong depth in both forwards and defensemen, including valuable young players. The Flames, Hurricanes, and Predators will all have to make tough calls on the blue line between established veterans and budding young standouts, while the Islanders, Lightning, and Capitals won’t have much choice but to expose young defenders but will also face a crunch at forward that could cost veteran difference-makers.

However, at least each of these teams has a chance at postseason glory this year (hopefully) and next before their rosters take a hit. The Sabres should be the team most afraid of the expansion draft because they look primed to lose a key young player before they are even done putting together a contending squad. With many strong defensemen and a growing core of impressive forwards, Buffalo will have to expose notable names. On defense, only two of Rasmus Ristolainen, Henri Jokiharju, Brandon Montour, and Colin Miller can be protected alongside Rasmus Dahlin, while upfront the team must protect centerpieces Jack Eichel, Jeff Skinner, Sam Reinhart, and Victor Olofsson, not to mention the presumed top-six forward they have long been rumored to be seeking this summer, leaving few spots for a large group of up-and-comers including Casey Mittelstadt, Tage Thompson, Rasmus Asplund, and Dominik Kahun.

Gavin Lee:

When this year’s trade deadline was approaching and rumors started swirling around the Minnesota Wild, a few interesting names hit the news. The team was apparently considering a move of either Mathew Dumba or Jonas Brodin, two players who seemed to be core contributors that were still young enough to be part of a retooled competitive window.

The reason may well be the expansion draft, where new Wild GM Bill Guerin will still be in tough thanks to his predecessors.

Remember that players who have no-movement clauses require automatic protection from the draft, eating up precious spots. The Wild have four such players: Zach Parise, Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Suter, and Jared Spurgeon. If the draft rolls around and all four players are still on the roster (and refuse to waive their clauses), it’s going to be hard for the Wild to protect all of their young talent. Remember, even Zuccarello will be turning 34 just a few months after the draft.

Brodin is an unrestricted free agent in 2021, meaning he may end up on the trade block no matter what, but if they had any inkling of extending the reliable defender it would only complicate things further.

No doubt this was also a consideration when Guerin almost traded Parise to the New York Islanders at the deadline. Moving the veteran forward would really be a blessing for the team, despite how difficult it would be to see a franchise (and Minnesota) legend leave town.

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